RCF - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.1

📊 Based on the given parameters, RCF shows moderate potential for swing trading. The stock trades at a slightly higher P/E (24.8 vs industry 20.3), indicating mild overvaluation. Technical indicators (RSI 42.3, MACD -2.05) suggest weak momentum, while volumes are below average, reducing liquidity. However, quarterly PAT growth (106 Cr vs 54.1 Cr) and positive EPS (5.66 ₹) provide some support. Dividend yield (0.96%) and manageable debt-to-equity (0.56) add stability, though efficiency metrics (ROCE 7.47%, ROE 5.00%) remain weak.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 135–137 ₹ (near support zone and below DMA 50).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 150–155 ₹ resistance or on breakdown below 135 ₹.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Quarterly PAT growth (106 Cr vs 54.1 Cr)
• 📊 EPS at 5.66 ₹ supports valuation
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.56, manageable leverage
• 💰 Dividend yield of 0.96%, moderate investor return

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 P/E ratio (24.8) higher than industry average (20.3)
• 📊 Weak ROCE (7.47%) and ROE (5.00%)
• 📉 RSI at 42.3, near oversold zone
• 📊 MACD negative (-2.05), bearish momentum

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Trading volumes below average (6,75,991 vs 16,10,085)
• 📊 PEG ratio negative (-0.91), poor growth-adjusted valuation

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Quarterly profit variation positive (34.5%)
• 📊 Slight increase in FII (+0.03%) and DII (+0.02%) holdings

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 20.3, lower than RCF’s valuation
• 📈 Fertilizer and chemicals sector supported by government subsidies and demand growth

📌 Conclusion

RCF is a moderately attractive swing trade candidate with improving profits and stable fundamentals, but weak efficiency metrics and bearish technical signals limit upside. Entry near 135–137 ₹ offers a favorable setup, while exits should be targeted near 150–155 ₹. Traders should remain cautious and use strict stop-loss management due to overvaluation and weak momentum.

I can also prepare a comparison of RCF with another fertilizer PSU to highlight relative swing trade opportunities.