RCF - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📊 Swing Trade Analysis: Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd (RCF)

RCF presents a neutral-to-moderate swing trade setup, with stable technical positioning and fair valuation. While the stock is consolidating near key moving averages, weak profitability and declining volume suggest limited upside unless momentum improves.

✅ Strengths

Valuation & Earnings

P/E: 30.1 matches Industry PE → Fairly valued.

EPS: ₹5.17 → Reasonable earnings base.

Qtr Profit Var: +404% → Strong rebound in quarterly performance.

Technical Positioning

Current price ₹154 is exactly at DMA50 and DMA200 (₹153) → Consolidation zone.

MACD: 0.41 → Mild bullish crossover.

RSI: 50.1 → Neutral zone, with room to rise.

Balance Sheet

Debt-to-Equity: 0.58 → Moderate leverage.

Book Value: ₹86.2 → Decent asset backing.

⚠️ Weaknesses

Profitability

ROCE: 7.48% and ROE: 5.09% → Weak capital efficiency.

Momentum & Volume

Volume (9.81L) < 1-week average (14.24L) → Declining interest.

RSI and MACD are positive but not strong enough to confirm a breakout.

Institutional Sentiment

FII Holding ↓ 0.18% → Mild foreign investor pullback.

DII Holding ↑ 0.01% → Flat domestic interest.

PEG Ratio: -1.13 → Indicates negative growth expectations.

Low Dividend Yield: 0.81% → Minimal passive income.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Buy Zone: ₹148–₹152

Slightly below current price, near DMA support for better risk-reward.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Holding)

Target Exit: ₹165–₹170

Near short-term resistance and psychological level.

Stop Loss: ₹145

Below DMA200 to manage downside risk.

This setup suits range-bound swing traders who can monitor for a breakout above resistance or exit quickly if momentum fades. Let me know if you'd like help setting alerts or tracking RSI/MACD signals.

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