HCLTECH - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Trend Setup: Price is below both 50 DMA (₹1,505) and 200 DMA (₹1,595), indicating a short-term downtrend.

MACD Negative: At −6.50, MACD confirms bearish momentum—no sign of reversal yet.

RSI Neutral: 55.0 suggests consolidation, not yet overbought or oversold.

Volume Surge: Current volume (28.27L) is above 1-week average (22.37L), showing increased interest despite weak momentum.

📈 Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation Premium: P/E of 32.0 vs industry average of 30.0 and PEG of 7.96—signals overvaluation relative to growth.

Exceptional Efficiency: ROCE 43.1%, ROE 32.6%—elite capital deployment.

Strong Dividend Yield: 3.61% adds cushion for holding periods.

Low Leverage: Debt-to-equity of 0.03 supports financial resilience.

Profit Stability: PAT dipped slightly from ₹3,045 Cr to ₹2,888 Cr, but Qtr Profit Var is +16.5%—still healthy.

Institutional Sentiment: FII reduced (−0.59%), DII increased (+0.73%)—mixed but net positive.

🧠 Analyst Sentiment

Recent broker reports value HCLTECH around ₹1,735 with a “Hold” rating, citing strong execution in IT services and a robust pipeline in AI and digital transformation

1

. However, the stock has underperformed YTD (−23.39%) despite a 5-year gain of 103.63%

2

. It’s currently trading near its 52-week low, with a 3-month return of −13.5%

3

.

🎯 Trade Strategy

🔹 Optimal Entry Price

₹1,460–₹1,475: Near recent support and below 50 DMA. Entry only if MACD flattens and RSI crosses 60 with volume confirmation.

🔹 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

₹1,720–₹1,735: First resistance zone aligned with broker targets. Exit if RSI crosses 70 or MACD turns flat.

Trailing Stop: ₹1,440 to protect downside.

🧠 Summary

HCLTECH offers a fundamentally strong but technically weak swing setup. While ROCE, ROE, and dividend yield are excellent, the MACD and PEG suggest caution. Best suited for bounce trades with confirmation signals. Entry near ₹1,470 offers a favorable risk-reward, and exit near ₹1,735 is prudent unless momentum accelerates.

Want me to prep a filtered basket with PEG < 1.5, ROCE > 20%, and MACD > 5 for tighter swing setups?

1

trendlyne.com

2

www.marketsmojo.com

3

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Edit in a page