NATIONALUM - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListHere’s the structured swing trade analysis for NATIONALUM based on the given parameters
📊 Swing Trade Rating: 4.2
| Stock Code | NATIONALUM | Market Cap | 67,560 Cr. | Current Price | 368 ₹ | High / Low | 445 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 11.6 | Book Value | 119 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 2.86 % | ROCE | 39.2 % |
| ROE | 29.2 % | Face Value | 5.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 397 ₹ | DMA 200 | 337 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 2.60 % | Chg in DII Hold | -1.60 % | PAT Qtr | 1,718 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 1,601 Cr. |
| RSI | 37.4 | MACD | -11.3 | Volume | 78,97,967 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 1,21,62,715 |
| Low price | 180 ₹ | High price | 445 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 0.21 | Debt to equity | 0.00 |
| 52w Index | 70.8 % | Qtr Profit Var | -17.4 % | EPS | 31.7 ₹ | Industry PE | 16.2 |
NATIONALUM shows strong swing trade potential. The current price of 368 ₹ is below the 50 DMA (397 ₹) but above the 200 DMA (337 ₹), reflecting short-term weakness with medium-term support. RSI at 37.4 suggests oversold conditions, while MACD at -11.3 indicates bearish momentum. Fundamentals are excellent with ROCE at 39.2%, ROE at 29.2%, and EPS at 31.7 ₹. Valuation is attractive (P/E 11.6 vs industry 16.2, PEG 0.21), supported by a healthy dividend yield of 2.86%. Despite a quarterly profit decline (-17.4%), strong institutional inflows from FIIs (+2.60%) add confidence.
Optimal Entry Price: 360–370 ₹, near current support.
Exit Strategy if Holding: Consider profit booking around 395–405 ₹. If momentum sustains, monitor for breakout toward 445 ₹ resistance.
✅ Positive
- 📈 Attractive valuation (P/E 11.6 vs industry 16.2).
- 💰 Dividend yield of 2.86% provides steady returns.
- 📊 Strong ROCE (39.2%) and ROE (29.2%).
- 📈 EPS of 31.7 ₹ reflects solid profitability.
- 💹 FII inflows (+2.60%) show foreign investor confidence.
⚠️ Limitation
- 📉 RSI at 37.4 and bearish MACD (-11.3) show weak momentum.
- 📊 Quarterly profit variation of -17.4% raises caution.
- 📉 DII holding decreased (-1.60%), showing reduced domestic support.
🚨 Company Negative News
- 📉 Profit decline in the latest quarter.
- ⚠️ Technical weakness with price below 50 DMA.
🌟 Company Positive News
- 📈 Strong fundamentals with high ROCE and ROE.
- 💹 FII inflows (+2.60%) support sentiment.
- 📊 Dividend yield adds investor appeal.
🏭 Industry
- 📊 Industry P/E at 16.2 is higher, showing NATIONALUM trades at a discount.
- ⛏️ Metals and mining sector remains cyclical, offering swing trade opportunities during commodity upturns.
📌 Conclusion
⚖️ NATIONALUM is a strong candidate for swing trading with undervaluation, strong fundamentals, and dividend support. Entry near 360–370 ₹ offers a favorable risk-reward setup. Exit should be considered around 395–405 ₹ unless momentum sustains toward 445 ₹. Traders should monitor RSI and quarterly earnings closely for confirmation.
Would you like me to extend this with a peer benchmarking against NMDC and Hindustan_Copper to highlight relative swing trade opportunities?