NATIONALUM - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.5

📊 National Aluminium (NATIONALUM) is a strong candidate for swing trading. The RSI at 68.6 indicates slightly overbought conditions, but the MACD (7.94) is positive, reflecting bullish momentum. The stock is trading well above both its 50 DMA (252 ₹) and 200 DMA (216 ₹), showing strong technical strength. Fundamentals are highly attractive with a low P/E of 8.38 compared to industry P/E of 20.6, high ROCE (43.7%), ROE (32.6%), and a healthy dividend yield of 3.76%. Quarterly PAT growth (+34.9%) and robust 52-week performance (+97.2%) further support upside potential.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 270–275 ₹ (near support zone, slightly below current price).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 283–290 ₹ (recent high resistance) unless momentum continues strongly.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong ROCE of 43.7% and ROE of 32.6%
• 💰 Attractive valuation with P/E of 8.38 vs industry P/E of 20.6
• 💵 Dividend yield of 3.76% provides steady income
• 📊 EPS of 33.5 ₹ supports earnings stability
• 📈 FII holding increased by 1.16%, showing strong foreign investor confidence

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 RSI at 68.6 indicates overbought conditions, risk of short-term correction
• 📉 DII holding declined by -0.31%
• 📉 Current price (279 ₹) close to 52-week high (283 ₹), limiting immediate upside

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Stock trading near peak levels may face profit booking pressure
• 📉 Overbought RSI could trigger short-term volatility

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Quarterly PAT improved from 1,064 Cr. to 1,433 Cr. (+34.9%)
• 📊 Strong 52-week index performance (+97.2%) shows robust appreciation
• 💵 Debt-free balance sheet (Debt-to-equity 0.00) adds financial strength

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry P/E at 20.6, much higher than NATIONALUM’s 8.38, showing undervaluation
• ⚒️ Aluminium sector benefits from global demand in infrastructure and renewable energy projects

📝 Conclusion

⚖️ NATIONALUM is a strong candidate for swing trading. Entry near 270–275 ₹ offers a favorable risk-reward setup, while exit near 283–290 ₹ captures short-term resistance. Attractive fundamentals, strong profit growth, and bullish technicals make it appealing, though traders should watch for overbought signals and possible profit booking near highs.

I can also prepare a side-by-side HTML comparison of NATIONALUM vs NMDC swing trade setups so you can evaluate which metals stock offers better short-term potential.