NATIONALUM - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.3

📉 Optimal Entry Price: ₹220–₹225 (near 50 DMA and RSI support)

📈 Exit Strategy (if holding): ₹260–₹263 (near 52-week high and resistance)

🔷 Positive

• 📊 Low P/E of 7.39: Significantly undervalued compared to industry average of 19.5.
• 📈 ROCE (43.7%) and ROE (32.6%): Indicate excellent capital efficiency and profitability.
• 💰 Dividend yield of 4.51%: Attractive for income-focused swing traders.
• 📈 MACD at 6.29: Suggests bullish momentum and trend continuation.
• 📈 FII holding increased by 1.16%: Reflects strong foreign investor confidence.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Quarterly PAT dropped: From ₹2,078 Cr. to ₹1,064 Cr., indicating earnings volatility.
• 📉 RSI at 59.1: Approaching overbought zone, suggesting caution for fresh entry.
• 📉 Volume below 1-week average: May reflect short-term cooling in trading interest.
• 📉 DII holding dropped by 0.31%: Indicates mild domestic institutional caution.
• 📉 52w Index at 75.8%: Suggests limited upside before hitting resistance.

📉 Company Negative News

• 📉 Q2FY26 PAT halved QoQ due to lower aluminum realizations and rising input costs.
• 📉 Analysts flagged concerns over global aluminum price volatility and export headwinds.

📈 Company Positive News

• 📈 National Aluminium reported 77% YoY profit growth, driven by operational efficiency and cost control.
• 📊 Management remains optimistic about domestic demand and capacity expansion in FY26.

🏭 Industry

• 🔩 Operates in the metals and mining sector, which benefits from infrastructure growth and commodity cycles.
• 📉 Industry P/E of 19.5 suggests National Aluminium trades at a discount, offering value for swing traders.

🧾 Conclusion

• ✅ National Aluminium is a strong swing trade candidate with solid fundamentals, attractive valuation, and bullish technicals, though earnings volatility and RSI levels warrant caution.
• 📌 Entry near ₹220–₹225 offers a favorable setup if RSI stabilizes and MACD sustains.
• 🚪 If already holding, consider exiting near ₹260–₹263, aligning with resistance and 52-week high.

Would you like me to compare NATIONALUM with Hindalco or Vedanta to refine your swing trade strategy?