NATIONALUM - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.6

📈 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Price Positioning: Current price ₹190 is above both 50 DMA (₹187) and 200 DMA (₹186) — bullish setup.

RSI (49.1) — neutral, with room to rise; not overbought.

MACD (1.56) — positive, indicating upward momentum.

Volume: Slightly below 1-week average — suggests consolidation, not weakness.

📊 Fundamental Overview

Valuation

P/E (6.62) vs Industry P/E (17.7) — deeply undervalued.

PEG Ratio (0.31) — excellent, indicating strong growth at a low valuation.

EPS (₹28.7) — robust earnings base.

Book Value (₹97) — price trades at ~2x book, reasonable for a commodity stock.

Profitability

ROCE (44.0%) and ROE (32.7%) — outstanding returns, highly efficient.

Dividend Yield (4.22%) — attractive for income-seeking traders.

Quarterly Performance

PAT Qtr: ₹2,067 Cr vs Prev Qtr: ₹1,566 Cr — massive QoQ growth (+203%).

Debt-to-Equity (0.01) — virtually debt-free.

FII/DII Holding

FII down (-0.75%), DII up (+0.06%) — mixed sentiment, but not alarming.

✅ Swing Trade Strategy

Optimal Entry Price: ₹185–₹188 (near DMA support and psychological level)

Target Exit Price: ₹210–₹220 (next resistance zone)

Stop Loss: ₹180 (below DMA and recent support)

🧭 If You Already Hold the Stock

Hold with a target of ₹210–₹220.

Exit if price breaks below ₹180 or RSI dips below 45 with MACD turning flat or negative.

This stock combines strong fundamentals, low valuation, and improving technicals — making it a high-potential candidate for swing trading.

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