IOC - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.7

🔍 Technical Overview

Price Positioning: Current price (₹148) is slightly above both 50 DMA (₹146) and 200 DMA (₹142) — signaling mild bullish momentum.

RSI (48.2): Neutral zone — neither overbought nor oversold; potential for upward move if it crosses 55.

MACD (+0.92): Positive crossover, albeit weak — trend improvement visible but needs volume confirmation.

Volume: Below weekly average — low conviction yet.

📈 Fundamental Check

Valuation

P/E (17.2) vs Industry PE (21.6) — moderately undervalued.

PEG Ratio (–0.80) → indicates volatile or negative earnings growth expectations.

Financial Health

ROCE (7.37%) & ROE (6.56%) → low returns; not impressive.

Debt to Equity (0.82) — on the higher side, but manageable.

Dividend Yield (2.03%) — steady income component.

💼 Ownership & Earnings

Institutional activity is flat: FII (+0.09%), DII (+0.32%) — suggests cautious sentiment.

PAT Surge: ₹8,123 Cr vs ₹1,637 Cr — massive quarter jump, could be cyclical or subsidy-driven.

EPS (₹9.63) → fairly solid.

Qtr Profit Var (57.8%) — strong growth momentum.

🎯 Trade Strategy

📥 Entry Point

Ideal zone: ₹144–₹146 — closer to 50 DMA with MACD still positive.

Confirm with RSI > 50 and uptick in volume before entry.

📤 Exit Strategy (If Holding)

Minor resistance: ₹154–₹158.

Profit booking zone: ₹165–₹170.

Maximum upside: ₹176+ — only if volume spikes and RSI > 65.

🧠 Summary

IOC offers a moderately attractive swing setup with MACD crossover, supportive DMA alignment, and strong PAT growth. However, low ROE/ROCE and PEG distortion caution against aggressive entry. Best suited for short-term tactical moves rather than aggressive plays. Ideal for opportunistic entry near support zones with momentum confirmation.

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