BPCL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 4.0

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

✅ Strengths

P/E of 8.01 vs industry 17.4 — attractively valued.

PEG ratio 0.61 — undervalued relative to growth.

EPS ₹37.8 and Qtr Profit Var +103% — strong earnings momentum.

ROCE (19.6%) and ROE (18.7%) — solid capital efficiency.

Price above DMA50 (₹320) and DMA200 (₹309) — confirms bullish structure.

FII holding increased (+0.87%) — foreign institutional support.

Dividend yield 3.07% — adds income cushion.

Debt-to-equity 0.41 — moderate and manageable.

⚠️ Watchouts

MACD at -0.06 — momentum is flattening, not yet bullish.

RSI at 59.7 — neutral, needs to hold above 60 for confirmation.

Volume flat — no breakout signal.

DII holding dipped (-0.05%) — mild domestic sentiment softening.

52w Index at 64.4% — mid-range, not near breakout or bottom.

🧭 Trend Context (September 2025)

BPCL is trading near a key resistance zone. Analysts project a short-term breakout if the stock closes above ₹327.72, with major resistance at ₹336–₹340

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. The weekly support sits around ₹303.82, and a close below that could trigger a breakdown.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Ideal entry: ₹318–₹322, near DMA50 and support zone.

Confirm entry only if MACD turns positive and RSI crosses 60 with volume >60L.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Target zone: ₹336–₹340 (near resistance and breakout threshold).

Stop-loss: ₹308 (below DMA200 and weekly support).

Exit trigger: RSI > 70 or MACD divergence near ₹340.

This setup offers a compelling mix of valuation comfort, earnings momentum, and technical structure. If you're basket-optimizing across energy or PSU themes, I can scan for peers with similar PEG and MACD profiles. Just say the word.

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