ONGC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

📊 ONGC shows strong dividend yield and attractive valuation but weak technical momentum. The RSI (29.1) indicates oversold conditions, while MACD (-3.75) suggests bearish sentiment. The stock is trading below both DMA 50 (243 ₹) and DMA 200 (245 ₹), showing short-term weakness. Fundamentals remain solid with high quarterly PAT and low debt, making it a cautious swing trade candidate.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 220–225 ₹ (near support zone, close to 52-week low).

🚪 Exit Strategy (if already holding): Consider profit booking near 245–255 ₹ (DMA resistance zone) or exit if price falls below 205 ₹.

Positive

• ✅ Attractive P/E (8.99) compared to industry average (18.6), showing undervaluation.
• ✅ Strong dividend yield (5.31%) provides steady income.
• ✅ High quarterly PAT (9,848 Cr.) compared to previous quarter (8,024 Cr.).
• ✅ Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.10) ensures financial stability.
• ✅ EPS of 25.9 ₹ supports profitability.

Limitation

• ⚠️ RSI (29.1) indicates oversold conditions, reflecting weak momentum.
• ⚠️ MACD negative (-3.75), showing bearish trend.
• ⚠️ Current price (233 ₹) below DMA 50 and DMA 200, signaling technical weakness.
• ⚠️ Quarterly profit variation (-17.8%) shows earnings volatility.
• ⚠️ FII holding decreased (-0.10%), reflecting reduced foreign investor confidence.

Company Negative News

• 📉 Decline in quarterly profit variation (-17.8%) despite strong PAT numbers.
• 📉 Weak technical indicators suggest limited short-term upside.

Company Positive News

• 📈 Strong dividend yield supports investor confidence.
• 📈 Domestic institutional investors increased stake (+0.11%).
• 📈 PAT growth compared to previous quarter highlights operational strength.

Industry

• 🏭 Industry P/E at 18.6 indicates sector is moderately valued compared to ONGC’s lower valuation.
• 🏭 Energy sector remains cyclical but benefits from global demand and commodity price trends.

Conclusion

🔎 ONGC is a fundamentally strong but technically weak swing trade candidate. Entry near 220–225 ₹ offers a favorable risk-reward setup, with exit targets around 245–255 ₹. Traders should monitor RSI recovery and MACD crossover for confirmation before entry. Long-term investors may benefit from dividend yield and undervaluation.

Would you like me to extend this with a sector rotation overlay comparing ONGC against other energy stocks, or a basket scan to highlight peers with stronger technical momentum?