ONGC - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 2.9

📊 Chart Patterns: ONGC is trading at 233 ₹, below both its 50 DMA (243 ₹) and 200 DMA (245 ₹). The chart shows weakness after a correction from the 52-week high (274 ₹), with support visible near 225–230 ₹.

📈 Moving Averages: Price is below short- and long-term averages, confirming bearish sentiment. Sustaining above 243–245 ₹ is crucial for recovery.

📉 RSI: At 29.1, RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound but overall weakness.

📉 MACD: Negative (-3.75), showing bearish crossover and continuation of downward momentum.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and possible volatility squeeze.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (40.9 lakh) is significantly below average weekly volume (77.4 lakh), showing reduced participation and weak buying interest.

📍 Momentum Signals: Short-term momentum is bearish. RSI suggests possible rebound near support but no strong reversal yet.

🎯 Entry Zone: 225–233 ₹ (near support). Suitable only for speculative rebound trades with strict risk management.

🎯 Exit Zone: 243–250 ₹ (near 50 DMA and 200 DMA resistance). Strong resistance at 270–274 ₹.

🔎 Trend Status: The stock is reversing downward and currently in a bearish phase with weak consolidation attempts.

Positive

• Strong dividend yield of 5.31% provides steady income.
• Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.10) ensures financial stability.
• EPS of 25.9 ₹ supports valuation strength.
• P/E of 8.99 is attractive compared to industry average (18.6).
• Quarterly PAT improved sequentially (9,848 Cr. vs 8,024 Cr.).

Limitation

• RSI near oversold levels indicates weak momentum.
• MACD negative, showing short-term weakness.
• Price trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA.
• Quarterly profit variation (-17.8%) shows declining year-on-year performance.

Company Negative News

• FII holdings declined (-0.10%).
• Stock corrected from 274 ₹ to 233 ₹.
• Quarterly profit variation shows weakness (-17.8%).

Company Positive News

• Sequential PAT growth (9,848 Cr. vs 8,024 Cr.).
• DII holdings increased (+0.11%).
• Dividend yield of 5.31% supports investor confidence.

Industry

• Industry PE is 18.6, higher than ONGC’s 8.99, suggesting undervaluation.
• Energy sector remains cyclical, influenced by global crude prices and government policies.

Conclusion

⚠️ ONGC is in a bearish trend, trading below key moving averages with oversold RSI. Fundamentals show strong dividend yield and undervaluation relative to peers, but weak technical momentum and declining year-on-year profits limit upside. Traders may consider speculative entries near 225–233 ₹ with exits around 243–250 ₹. Long-term investors should wait for sustained profitability and a breakout above 245 ₹ before committing further.