NTPC - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

📉 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Price Positioning: Current price ₹335 is below both 50 DMA (₹339) and 200 DMA (₹344) — short-term bearish trend.

RSI (42.8) — weak momentum, nearing oversold zone.

MACD (-0.30) — negative, confirming downward pressure.

Volume: Slightly above 1-week average — suggests mild accumulation or speculative interest.

📊 Fundamental Overview

Valuation

P/E (13.8) vs Industry P/E (41.2) — undervalued relative to peers.

PEG Ratio (1.10) — fair valuation considering growth.

EPS (₹24.2) — strong earnings base.

Book Value (₹190) — price trades at ~1.76x book, reasonable for a PSU.

Profitability

ROCE (10.8%) and ROE (13.6%) — moderate returns, typical for utility sector.

Dividend Yield (2.32%) — adds holding incentive.

Quarterly Performance

PAT Qtr: ₹7,611 Cr vs Prev Qtr: ₹5,063 Cr — strong QoQ growth (+23.4%).

Debt-to-Equity (1.36) — high leverage, but manageable for capital-intensive sector.

FII/DII Holding

FII down (-1.70%), DII up (+1.70%) — mixed institutional sentiment.

⚠️ Swing Trade Strategy

Current Setup: Not ideal for immediate swing due to weak technicals.

Watch for Reversal: RSI recovery above 45 and MACD crossover would be key triggers.

Optimal Entry Price: ₹325–₹330 (near support zone and psychological level)

Target Exit Price: ₹360–₹370 (near 50 DMA and minor resistance)

Stop Loss: ₹318 (below recent support and psychological threshold)

🧭 If You Already Hold the Stock

Hold if price stabilizes above ₹330 and RSI improves.

Exit near ₹360–₹370 if momentum fades or MACD remains negative.

Cut Losses if price breaks below ₹318 with RSI dipping below 40.

This stock has strong fundamentals but needs technical confirmation before becoming a high-confidence swing trade.

Edit in a page