NTPC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.7

📊 Swing Trade Analysis: NTPC Ltd.

NTPC offers a moderately attractive swing trade setup, supported by solid fundamentals and stable technical indicators. While momentum is currently neutral, the stock is trading near key support levels, making it a candidate for a short-term bounce.

✅ Strengths

Valuation & Profitability

P/E (16.4) vs Industry PE (31.2): Undervalued.

EPS (₹20.5) and Book Value (₹167): Strong earnings and asset base.

ROCE (12.2%) and ROE (13.6%): Healthy capital efficiency.

Dividend Yield (2.48%): Attractive for short-term holders.

DII Holding Increase (+1.70%): Positive domestic sentiment.

Technical Positioning

Price near 50 DMA (₹334) and 200 DMA (₹341)**: Consolidation zone — potential support.

RSI (56.0): Neutral, with room for upside.

Volume stable: Close to 1-week average.

⚠️ Weaknesses

MACD (-0.39): Bearish crossover — signals weak momentum.

FII Holding Decline (-1.70%): Foreign investors pulling back.

PEG Ratio (2.26): Indicates moderate growth relative to valuation.

Debt-to-Equity (1.15): High leverage.

Quarterly PAT Decline: From ₹5,778 Cr. to ₹4,775 Cr.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Entry Zone: ₹330–₹335

A pullback near the 50 DMA offers a better risk-reward setup. Watch for MACD reversal or volume spike for confirmation.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Target Exit Price: ₹360–₹370

Near intermediate resistance and psychological level.

Stop Loss: ₹325

Just below recent support and 50 DMA.

Time Horizon: 1–2 weeks, depending on technical recovery.

This setup suits swing traders looking for stability and modest upside in a fundamentally strong stock. Let me know if you'd like help tracking this trade or scanning similar setups.

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