NTPC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.6

📉 Optimal Entry Price: ₹325–₹330 (near RSI support and below 50 DMA)

📈 Exit Strategy (if holding): ₹405–₹410 (near 52-week high and resistance)

🔷 Positive

• 📊 Low P/E of 16.1: Undervalued compared to industry average of 31.0.
• 📈 ROCE (12.2%) and ROE (13.6%): Indicate solid capital efficiency and profitability.
• 💰 Dividend yield of 2.53%: Attractive for income-focused swing traders.
• 📈 FII holding increased by 0.31%: Reflects growing foreign investor confidence.
• 📊 EPS of ₹20.5: Supports valuation and earnings strength.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 RSI at 39.5: Indicates weak momentum and potential oversold conditions.
• 📉 MACD at -0.19: Suggests bearish crossover and short-term weakness.
• 📉 Trading below DMA 50 and 200: Reflects technical pressure.
• 📉 PEG ratio of 2.21: Implies valuation is stretched relative to growth.
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11: Indicates high leverage typical of capital-intensive utilities.

📉 Company Negative News

• 📉 Q2FY26 PAT declined slightly from ₹4,775 Cr. to ₹4,653 Cr., raising concerns over margin compression.
• 📉 Analysts flagged delays in renewable project commissioning and regulatory headwinds.

📈 Company Positive News

• 📈 NTPC maintained stable earnings and continues to expand its renewable portfolio aggressively.
• 📊 Management expects capacity addition of 5 GW in FY26, boosting long-term growth visibility.

⚡ Industry

• 🔋 Operates in the power generation sector, benefiting from rising energy demand and government infrastructure push.
• 📉 Industry P/E of 31.0 suggests NTPC trades at a discount, offering value for swing traders.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ NTPC is a moderate swing trade candidate with strong fundamentals and income potential, though technical indicators and leverage warrant caution.
• 📌 Entry near ₹325–₹330 offers a low-risk setup if RSI rebounds and MACD turns positive.
• 🚪 If already holding, consider exiting near ₹405–₹410, aligning with resistance and 52-week high.

I can also compare NTPC with other power PSUs like NHPC or SJVN to help refine your swing strategy.