NTPC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

📊 NTPC shows moderate potential for swing trading. The RSI at 35.8 indicates oversold conditions, but the MACD (-2.55) remains negative, reflecting bearish sentiment. The stock is trading below both its 50 DMA (328 ₹) and 200 DMA (337 ₹), showing short-term weakness. Fundamentals are fair with a P/E of 15.6 compared to industry P/E of 26.7, strong dividend yield (2.61%), and stable EPS (20.5 ₹). However, high debt-to-equity (1.11) and declining quarterly PAT limit upside momentum.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 310–315 ₹ (near support zone).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 328–335 ₹ (DMA resistance) unless momentum strengthens.

✅ Positive

• 💵 Dividend yield of 2.61% provides steady income
• 📈 EPS of 20.5 ₹ supports earnings stability
• 📊 P/E of 15.6 vs industry P/E of 26.7 shows undervaluation
• 📈 FII holding increased by 0.31%, showing foreign investor confidence

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Current price (320 ₹) is below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA
• 📉 RSI at 35.8 shows weak momentum
• 📉 MACD at -2.55 signals bearish trend
• 📉 High debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 increases financial risk

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly PAT declined slightly from 4,775 Cr. to 4,653 Cr.
• 📉 Volume (62 lakh) below average weekly volume (70 lakh), showing reduced activity

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Quarterly profit variation stable (+0.10%) despite sector challenges
• 💵 Consistent dividend payout supports investor confidence

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry P/E at 26.7, higher than NTPC’s 15.6, showing undervaluation
• ⚡ Power sector benefits from government focus on renewable and infrastructure expansion

📝 Conclusion

⚖️ NTPC offers moderate swing trade potential. Entry near 310–315 ₹ may provide a rebound opportunity, but exit should be considered around 328–335 ₹ unless momentum improves. Strong dividend yield and undervaluation are positives, but high debt and bearish technicals limit short-term upside. Long-term investors may benefit from sectoral growth, while swing traders should remain cautious.

I can also prepare a side-by-side HTML comparison of NTPC vs NTPC Green swing trade setups so you can evaluate which offers better short-term potential in the power sector.