NTPC - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 3.2

📊 Chart Patterns: NTPC is trading at 320 ₹, below both its 50 DMA (328 ₹) and 200 DMA (337 ₹). The chart shows weakness with a downward bias, but strong support is visible near 293 ₹.

📈 Moving Averages: Current price is below short- and long-term averages, confirming bearish sentiment. A close above 328–337 ₹ would indicate strength.

📉 RSI: At 35.8, RSI is weak and close to oversold territory, suggesting limited downside but no strong rebound yet.

📉 MACD: Negative (-2.55), showing bearish crossover and continuation of weakness.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, indicating selling pressure and possible volatility squeeze.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (62 lakh) is below average weekly volume (70.5 lakh), showing reduced participation and lack of strong buying interest.

📍 Momentum Signals: Short-term momentum is bearish. RSI suggests possible consolidation near support but no strong reversal yet.

🎯 Entry Zone: 310–320 ₹ (near support). Suitable for accumulation with risk management.

🎯 Exit Zone: 335–345 ₹ (near 200 DMA resistance). Strong resistance at 371 ₹ (52-week high).

🔎 Trend Status: The stock is consolidating after a correction, with sideways movement expected near support levels.

Positive

• Strong market cap of 3,10,196 Cr. ensures stability.
• Dividend yield of 2.61% provides steady income.
• EPS of 20.5 ₹ supports valuation.
• FII holdings increased (+0.31%), showing foreign investor confidence.
• P/E (15.6) is below industry average (26.7), suggesting undervaluation.

Limitation

• Debt-to-equity ratio is high at 1.11.
• ROCE (12.2%) and ROE (13.6%) are moderate compared to peers.
• Price trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA.
• Volume participation is declining.

Company Negative News

• PAT declined slightly from 4,775 Cr. to 4,653 Cr.
• Stock corrected from 371 ₹ to 320 ₹.

Company Positive News

• FII holdings increased (+0.31%).
• DII holdings increased marginally (+0.01%).
• Dividend yield of 2.61% supports investor returns.

Industry

• Industry PE is 26.7, higher than NTPC’s 15.6, suggesting undervaluation.
• Power sector remains defensive with government support for energy and infrastructure projects.

Conclusion

⚠️ NTPC is consolidating near support levels with weak technical momentum. Fundamentals show stability and undervaluation relative to peers, but high debt and moderate efficiency metrics limit upside. Traders may consider entries near 310–320 ₹ with exits around 335–345 ₹. Long-term investors should wait for a breakout above 337 ₹ to confirm trend reversal.