IRCTC - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.9

🔍 Technical Pulse

Current Price (₹736) is below both 50 DMA (₹766) and 200 DMA (₹788) — confirms weak trend momentum.

RSI (32.1): Approaching oversold levels — potential for bounce, but not yet convincing.

MACD (–8.20): Deep negative territory — strong bearish momentum.

Volume: Dwindling below weekly average — minimal participation, caution advised.

📊 Fundamental Insights

Valuation Check

Stock P/E (45.9) is notably higher than Industry PE (36.5) — points to overvaluation.

PEG Ratio missing — limits deeper valuation clarity.

Profitability Metrics

ROCE (49.0%) & ROE (37.2%) — stellar performance.

Debt/Equity (0.02) — rock-solid balance sheet.

Dividend Yield (0.95%) — modest, won’t sway swing decision.

💼 Ownership & Earnings Dynamics

Slight dip in FII holdings (–0.09%), mild uptick in DII holdings (+0.27%) — lukewarm institutional movement.

PAT Slippage: ₹328 Cr vs ₹341 Cr — mild contraction, no immediate trigger.

EPS (₹16.4) — fundamentally strong.

🎯 Trade Strategy

📥 Entry Point

Watch for price near ₹715–₹725 range, ideally closer to ₹710 if RSI dips below 30 and starts to rebound.

Entry only advisable with confirmation — RSI > 35, MACD flattening, and volume pickup.

📤 Exit Plan (If Holding)

Initial resistance at ₹755–₹765.

Ideal stretch target: ₹780–₹790 — near 200 DMA ceiling.

If sentiment flips bullish, extended target may reach ₹810+ with RSI > 60.

🧠 Final Take

IRCTC is fundamentally resilient but technically vulnerable. Swing traders should wait for clearer reversal signs — oversold doesn’t always mean rebound. It's a watchlist candidate, not an immediate mover.

If you're scouting other rail-sector names with better short-term momentum, I can surface some RSI surge or MACD crossover charts for you next.

Edit in a page