IRCTC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 3.1
| Stock Code | IRCTC | Market Cap | 42,072 Cr. | Current Price | 526 ₹ | High / Low | 820 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 30.4 | Book Value | 53.2 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 1.62 % | ROCE | 49.0 % |
| ROE | 37.2 % | Face Value | 2.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 597 ₹ | DMA 200 | 678 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | -0.08 % | Chg in DII Hold | -0.16 % | PAT Qtr | 387 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 338 Cr. |
| RSI | 31.1 | MACD | -24.6 | Volume | 10,51,751 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 18,49,332 |
| Low price | 518 ₹ | High price | 820 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 1.24 | Debt to equity | 0.02 |
| 52w Index | 2.52 % | Qtr Profit Var | 13.3 % | EPS | 17.8 ₹ | Industry PE | 39.8 |
📊 IRCTC shows moderate potential for swing trading. The RSI at 31.1 indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD (-24.6) confirms bearish sentiment. The price is trading below both the 50 DMA (597 ₹) and 200 DMA (678 ₹), reflecting short-term weakness. Fundamentally, the company is strong with high ROCE (49.0%) and ROE (37.2%), very low debt-to-equity (0.02), and consistent profitability. Quarterly profits improved (PAT up from 338 Cr. to 387 Cr.), and EPS is healthy at 17.8 ₹. Valuation is slightly stretched with a P/E of 30.4 compared to industry average of 39.8, but PEG ratio (1.24) suggests growth is reasonably priced. Institutional flows are negative, with FII (-0.08%) and DII (-0.16%) outflows.
💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 520–530 ₹, near current levels, with confirmation of reversal signals.
🚪 Exit Strategy (if already holding): Consider exiting near 580–600 ₹ if a rebound occurs, or cut losses if the price falls below 510 ₹ with strong volume.
Positive
- Strong ROCE (49.0%) and ROE (37.2%) highlight operational efficiency.
- Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.02) ensures financial stability.
- Quarterly profit growth (PAT up 13.3%).
- EPS at 17.8 ₹ supports earnings strength.
Limitation
- Price trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA confirms bearish trend.
- Institutional outflows (FII and DII) reduce confidence.
- Dividend yield is modest at 1.62%.
- Weak technical indicators (RSI, MACD) suggest continued selling pressure.
Company Negative News
- FII (-0.08%) and DII (-0.16%) holdings decreased.
- Weak technical momentum with MACD strongly negative.
Company Positive News
- Quarterly profit growth from 338 Cr. to 387 Cr.
- EPS at 17.8 ₹ supports earnings visibility.
- Strong ROCE and ROE with minimal debt.
Industry
- Industry P/E at 39.8 is higher than IRCTC’s 30.4, suggesting IRCTC is undervalued relative to peers.
- Travel and tourism sector remains cyclical, influenced by passenger demand and government policies.
Conclusion
✅ IRCTC is a moderately good candidate for swing trading, supported by strong fundamentals, profit growth, and undervaluation relative to peers. However, weak technicals and institutional outflows limit short-term upside. Traders may enter around 520–530 ₹ with momentum confirmation and target exits near 580–600 ₹. If already holding, monitor closely and protect downside below 510 ₹.