IRCTC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListHere’s a structured swing trade analysis for IRCTC based on the provided parameters
Swing Trade Rating: 3.8
| Stock Code | IRCTC | Market Cap | 41,916 Cr. | Current Price | 524 ₹ | High / Low | 799 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 30.4 | Book Value | 53.8 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 1.62 % | ROCE | 46.1 % |
| ROE | 34.6 % | Face Value | 2.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 536 ₹ | DMA 200 | 613 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | -2.33 % | Chg in DII Hold | 0.84 % | PAT Qtr | 327 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 387 Cr. |
| RSI | 48.4 | MACD | -4.60 | Volume | 12,01,476 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 10,24,336 |
| Low price | 493 ₹ | High price | 799 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 2.55 | Debt to equity | 0.02 |
| 52w Index | 10.3 % | Qtr Profit Var | -0.44 % | EPS | 17.4 ₹ | Industry PE | 34.8 |
📊 IRCTC shows moderate potential for swing trading. The stock is trading below both its 50 DMA (536 ₹) and 200 DMA (613 ₹), reflecting short-term and medium-term weakness. RSI at 48.4 suggests neutral momentum, while MACD (-4.60) indicates bearish undertone. Fundamentals remain strong with high ROCE (46.1%) and ROE (34.6%), low debt-to-equity (0.02), and decent EPS (17.4 ₹). However, valuation is stretched with P/E (30.4 vs industry 34.8) and PEG ratio (2.55). Institutional activity is mixed with FII selling (-2.33%) and DII buying (+0.84%).
💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 500–510 ₹ (near support zone above 493 ₹ low).
📈 Exit Strategy (if already holding): Consider booking profits near 560–580 ₹ (resistance zone below 200 DMA and far from 799 ₹ high). Use a stop-loss around 490 ₹ to manage risk.
Positive
- ✅ Strong ROCE (46.1%) and ROE (34.6%).
- ✅ Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.02), showing financial stability.
- ✅ Dividend yield of 1.62% adds investor confidence.
- ✅ EPS at 17.4 ₹ supports earnings strength.
- ✅ Increase in DII holdings (+0.84%).
Limitation
- ⚠️ Stock trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA.
- ⚠️ RSI neutral (48.4) and MACD negative (-4.60).
- ⚠️ Sequential PAT decline (₹387 Cr. → ₹327 Cr.).
- ⚠️ FII holdings decreased (-2.33%).
Company Negative News
- ❌ Decline in quarterly PAT (-0.44%).
- ❌ Reduced FII interest.
Company Positive News
- ✅ Strong efficiency metrics (ROCE and ROE).
- ✅ Increase in DII holdings (+0.84%).
- ✅ Dividend yield supports investor sentiment.
Industry
- 🚆 Industry P/E at 34.8, slightly higher than IRCTC’s 30.4, suggesting fair valuation.
- 📈 Travel and tourism sector benefits from rising demand but remains cyclical and policy-dependent.
Conclusion
🔎 IRCTC is a moderately attractive swing trade candidate with strong fundamentals but weak technicals. Entry near ₹500–510 with exit around ₹560–580 is advisable. Risk management is essential due to declining profits and reduced FII interest.
Would you like me to extend this into a peer benchmarking report to highlight relative opportunities in the travel and tourism sector?