IRCTC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.8

📊 IRCTC shows moderate potential for swing trading. The stock is currently priced at ₹675, below both its 50 DMA (₹693) and 200 DMA (₹736), indicating short-term weakness. RSI at 34.0 suggests oversold conditions, while MACD (-9.50) reflects bearish momentum. Strong fundamentals with high ROCE (49.0%) and ROE (37.2%) support long-term strength, but valuations remain high (P/E 40.4 vs industry PE 39.9). Optimal entry would be near ₹660–670, close to support. If already holding, consider exiting around ₹720–740, near resistance levels.

✅ Positive

• Strong ROCE (49.0%) and ROE (37.2%)
• Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.02)
• Consistent quarterly profit growth (₹338 Cr vs ₹330 Cr)
• Attractive dividend yield of 1.21%
• EPS of 17.1 ₹ supports valuation strength

⚠️ Limitation

• High P/E ratio (40.4), slightly above industry PE (39.9)
• Weak technical momentum (MACD negative, RSI oversold)
• Stock trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA
• PEG ratio (1.64) suggests valuation is stretched relative to growth

📉 Company Negative News

• Short-term technical weakness with bearish indicators
• Marginal decline in FII holdings (-0.01%)

📈 Company Positive News

• Improved quarterly profits (+9.69% growth)
• Strong fundamentals with high efficiency ratios
• Positive DII inflows (+0.02%)

🏭 Industry

• Industry PE (39.9) is close to IRCTC’s PE (40.4), showing fair valuation
• Travel and tourism sector remains cyclical but supported by rising demand post-pandemic

📝 Conclusion

IRCTC presents a cautious swing trade opportunity. Entry near ₹660–670 is optimal, while exit should be considered around ₹720–740. Strong fundamentals and profit growth support medium-term prospects, but weak technicals and high valuations warrant careful risk management.

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