IRCTC - Fundamental Analysis: Financial Health & Valuation

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:16 pm

🧠 My Thought Process

You're asking for a full-spectrum fundamental analysis of IRCTC (Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation Ltd), with a numeric rating and strategic investment guidance. I’ve weighed profitability, capital efficiency, valuation, and business durability, and incorporated recent performance trends and analyst forecasts for 2025

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📊 Fundamental Analysis of IRCTC

🔍 Core Financials

Profitability

PAT Qtr: ₹330 Cr vs ₹328 Cr — stable, with YoY growth of ~8%.

EPS: ₹16.7 — solid earnings base.

ROE: 37.2%, ROCE: 49.0% — exceptional capital efficiency, among the best in the PSU space.

Leverage & Liquidity

Debt-to-equity: 0.02 — virtually debt-free, excellent financial resilience.

Dividend Yield: 1.09% — modest, but consistent.

Cash Flow & Stability

Strong operating cash flows from ticketing, catering, and tourism.

Quarterly profit growth and stable margins reflect operational consistency.

📉 Valuation Indicators

Metric Value Interpretation

P/E Ratio 45.0 Slightly overvalued vs industry PE of 43.5

P/B Ratio ~16.1 High — reflects premium on monopoly status

PEG Ratio 1.83 Elevated — growth not fully justifying price

Intrinsic Value ~₹700–₹720 Slightly below current price — limited upside

🚆 Business Model & Competitive Edge

Segment Focus: Online ticketing, catering, tourism, and packaged water (Rail Neer).

Moat: Monopoly in railway ticketing and catering services; government-backed Mini Ratna status.

Growth Drivers

Expansion of Vande Bharat routes and dynamic pricing models.

Tourism packages and Rail Neer scaling up.

Digital transformation and integration with UPI, WhatsApp ticketing, and AI-based customer support.

📈 Technical & Entry Guidance

Current Price: ₹736

DMA 50/200: ₹732 / ₹768 — trading near short-term support.

RSI: 60.7 — neutral to mildly bullish.

MACD: -0.37 — mild bearish crossover.

🎯 Entry Zone

Ideal Buy Range: ₹700–₹720 — near intrinsic value and DMA support.

Stop Loss: ₹675

Target: ₹860–₹880 in medium term

🕰️ Long-Term Holding Outlook

Hold if invested: Strong fundamentals, monopoly status, and digital moat support long-term value.

Buy on dips: Preferably near ₹710 zone.

Growth Triggers: Vande Bharat expansion, tourism recovery, and platform monetization.

⭐ Fundamental Rating

4.3

You can explore IRCTC’s future price targets and analysis or review its historical performance and dividend outlook for deeper insights.

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moneymintidea.com

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ticker.finology.in

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