ALIVUS - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

Entry Zone: ₹880–₹900 (only if MACD flattens and RSI > 45)

Exit if held: ₹940–₹960 (near 50 DMA and volume pivot zone)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📉 Current Price: ₹902
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹1,260 / ₹827
• 📉 RSI: 40.4 (neutral to weak)
• 📉 MACD: -10.0 (bearish crossover)
• 📈 Volume: 2.59L vs 1W Avg 93K (strong surge)
• 📈 FII Holding Change: +0.42%
• 📉 DII Holding Change: -0.15%
• 📈 P/E: 22.4 vs Industry 33.1 (undervalued)
• 📉 PEG Ratio: 4.75 (growth priced high)

✅ Positive

• 📈 ROCE & ROE: 24.9% and 18.7% — strong capital efficiency.
• 📉 Low Debt: Debt-to-equity at 0.02 — conservative leverage.
• 📈 EPS: ₹40.4 — robust earnings base.
• 📈 Volume Spike: Indicates renewed interest near support zone.
• 📈 FII Accumulation: Foreign investors increased stake.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 MACD Negative: Indicates weak momentum.
• 📉 RSI < 45: No confirmation of bullish strength.
• 📉 Below DMA 50 & 200: Price under key averages — trend not confirmed.
• 📉 PEG Ratio: 4.75 — growth priced at a premium.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Q2FY26 PAT: ₹122 Cr vs ₹142 Cr QoQ — margin compression from API cost inflation.
• 📉 Domestic Formulations: Slowed to 6% YoY growth — impacted by pricing pressure.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Rating Upgrade: India Ratings upgraded long-term rating to ‘IND AA’ with Stable Outlook.
• 📈 EBITDA Margins: Stable at 18.5% — supported by Glenmark supply contracts till FY29.
• 📦 Global Expansion: New capacity utilization in Malta subsidiary driving export volumes.
• 📈 Market Outperformance: Gained 7.3% on Sep 19 despite broader market decline.

💊 Industry

• 📈 CDMO Demand: Global pharma outsourcing driving midcap contract manufacturers.
• 📉 Margin Pressure: API cost inflation and regulatory compliance costs rising.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ Not ideal for fresh swing entry unless MACD flattens and RSI > 45 with volume confirmation.
• 📤 If already held, exit near ₹940–₹960 (DMA resistance zone).
• 📈 Fundamentals stable, technicals weak — suitable for alert-driven tactical trades with basket overlay.

Sources

InvestyWise – Rating Upgrade

Trendlyne – News Summary

MarketsMojo – Market Outperformance