ALIVUS - Investment Analysis: Buy Signal or Bull Trap?
Back to ListInvestment Rating: 3.8
| Stock Code | ALIVUS | Market Cap | 10,696 Cr. | Current Price | 871 ₹ | High / Low | 1,260 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 20.2 | Book Value | 246 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.58 % | ROCE | 24.9 % |
| ROE | 18.7 % | Face Value | 2.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 904 ₹ | DMA 200 | 953 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 0.42 % | Chg in DII Hold | -0.15 % | PAT Qtr | 130 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 122 Cr. |
| RSI | 44.5 | MACD | -4.06 | Volume | 41,748 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 51,048 |
| Low price | 827 ₹ | High price | 1,260 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 4.28 | Debt to equity | 0.02 |
| 52w Index | 10.1 % | Qtr Profit Var | 36.4 % | EPS | 43.3 ₹ | Industry PE | 30.0 |
📊 ALIVUS demonstrates strong fundamentals with high ROCE (24.9%) and ROE (18.7%), supported by a nearly debt-free balance sheet (Debt-to-equity 0.02). The company has shown healthy quarterly profit growth (+36.4%) and maintains a modest dividend yield (0.58%). However, the PEG ratio of 4.28 suggests overvaluation relative to growth, and the stock trades below its 50 DMA (904 ₹) and 200 DMA (953 ₹), indicating weak technical momentum. The ideal entry price zone lies between ₹830–₹860, closer to the lower range. For current holders, a long-term horizon of 3–4 years is favorable, with an exit strategy near ₹1,200–₹1,250 if valuations stretch and earnings sustain.
✅ Positive
- 📈 ROCE of 24.9% reflects strong capital efficiency.
- 💹 ROE of 18.7% indicates healthy shareholder returns.
- 🏦 Debt-to-equity of 0.02 shows a nearly debt-free balance sheet.
- 📊 Quarterly profit growth of 36.4% highlights earnings momentum.
- 📈 EPS of ₹43.3 supports profitability strength.
⚠️ Limitation
- 📉 PEG ratio of 4.28 suggests overvaluation relative to growth prospects.
- 📉 P/E of 20.2 is lower than industry average (30.0), but growth premium is limited.
- 📉 Stock trading below DMA 50 & DMA 200 indicates weak technical momentum.
- 📉 MACD negative (-4.06) signals bearish trend continuation.
📰 Company Negative News
- 📉 DII holdings decreased by 0.15%, showing reduced domestic institutional interest.
🌟 Company Positive News
- 📊 PAT improved from ₹122 Cr. to ₹130 Cr., showing earnings growth.
- 📈 FII holdings increased by 0.42%, reflecting foreign investor confidence.
🏭 Industry
- 📊 Industry PE at 30.0 shows ALIVUS trades at a discount compared to peers.
- 💊 Pharma sector expected to benefit from global demand for formulations and outsourcing opportunities.
📌 Conclusion
ALIVUS is a fundamentally strong company with high efficiency ratios, low debt, and consistent profit growth. However, valuations appear stretched relative to growth, and technical indicators show weakness. Fresh entry is ideal around ₹830–₹860 for better risk-reward. Long-term investors can hold for 3–4 years, targeting ₹1,200–₹1,250 as an exit zone, while monitoring profitability and institutional flows.