CHENNPETRO - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.1

📊 CHENNPETRO shows strong potential for swing trading. The stock is trading slightly below its 50 DMA (904 ₹) but above its 200 DMA (779 ₹), reflecting medium-term strength despite short-term weakness. RSI at 41.5 suggests it is nearing oversold territory, while MACD (-7.57) indicates bearish momentum. Fundamentally, the company has delivered a sharp turnaround with quarterly profit growth (+216%) and EPS of 76.2 ₹, making it attractive at current valuations.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 870–880 ₹ (near support zone).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 950–970 ₹ (resistance zone) or trail stop-loss below 860 ₹ to manage risk.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Low P/E (11.6) compared to industry PE (11.3), suggesting fair valuation.
• 💰 Strong EPS (76.2 ₹) highlights earnings power.
• 📊 Quarterly profit growth (+216%) shows significant turnaround in performance.
• 📈 52-week return of 67.8% reflects strong past momentum.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 ROCE (4.04%) and ROE (2.10%) are weak, showing limited efficiency.
• 📊 PEG ratio (-0.24) indicates poor growth valuation alignment.
• 📉 Dividend yield (0.56%) offers limited income support.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Weak capital efficiency with low ROCE and ROE compared to peers.
• 📉 MACD (-7.57) signals short-term bearish momentum.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 PAT turnaround from -56.6 Cr. to 732 Cr. in the latest quarter.
• 💡 FII holding increased (+0.02%) and DII holding increased (+0.12%), showing institutional support.
• 📊 Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23 indicates manageable leverage.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 11.3, aligned with CHENNPETRO’s PE (11.6), suggesting fair sector valuation.
• 📈 Energy sector demand remains strong, supporting refinery and petrochemical businesses.

📌 Conclusion

CHENNPETRO is a strong swing trade candidate with attractive valuation and a sharp earnings turnaround. Entry near 870–880 ₹ offers a favorable risk-reward setup, while exits should be targeted around 950–970 ₹. Caution is advised due to weak ROCE/ROE and bearish technical indicators, but overall fundamentals and sector momentum provide support for short-term trades.

I can also prepare a side-by-side comparison of CHENNPETRO with another refinery stock to highlight relative swing trade strength.