ITC - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

📉 Technical Landscape

Price Position: Trading at ₹408, below 50 DMA (₹418) and 200 DMA (₹425) — bearish pressure evident.

RSI (35.3): Flirting with oversold zone — room for a bounce but not yet convincing.

MACD (–2.22): Negative slope — trend continuation implies caution.

Volume: Lagging behind weekly average — low trading interest limits short-term upside.

📊 Fundamental Strengths

Valuation

P/E (25.9) vs Industry PE (42.1) → attractively priced.

PEG (2.84) → growth premium is a little steep for swing timeframe.

Efficiency & Profitability

ROCE (36.8%) & ROE (27.3%) → excellent returns.

Zero debt → risk profile is minimal.

Dividend Yield (3.51%): Adds a defensive cushion during volatility.

🔄 Institutional Flow

FII Holding Change (–1.89%): Outflow signals cautious foreign sentiment.

DII Holding Change (+1.72%): Domestic confidence is rising — positive counterbalance.

💰 Earnings Pulse

Quarterly PAT: ₹5,134 Cr. vs ₹4,735 Cr — stable growth.

EPS (₹27.8): Strong profitability base.

🎯 Trading Strategy

📥 Entry Zone: ₹400–₹404, ideally near ₹395 support. Confirm RSI rebounding toward 40+ and MACD flattening for entry signal.

📤 Exit Strategy (If Holding): Aim for ₹418–₹420, the 50 DMA zone. If momentum carries and RSI crosses 60 with MACD turning positive, ₹430–₹435 could be a stretch exit.

🧠 Final Take

ITC’s fundamentals sparkle with solid returns and zero debt, but technical signals remain weak in the short term. It's worth tracking for reversal signals — but not yet ripe for aggressive swing trading. If you already hold it, monitor for a relief rally above ₹418 and keep stop-loss tight near ₹395.

Curious about other large-cap consumer staples that might have better short-term breakout potential? I’ve got a few that could suit your trading rhythm.

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