CANFINHOME - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

📉 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Current Price (₹740) is below both the 50-DMA (₹775) and 200-DMA (₹753), indicating short-term weakness.

RSI (33.5): Near oversold territory — potential for a technical bounce.

MACD (-11.9): Bearish — momentum is still negative.

Volume: Significantly below average, suggesting weak participation and low conviction.

📊 Fundamental Overview

ROE (18.2%): Strong return on equity — efficient capital usage.

ROCE (9.34%): Moderate — not ideal for swing trades.

Debt to Equity (6.92): Very high — typical for housing finance, but adds risk.

EPS (₹66.2) vs Stock P/E (11.2): Undervalued compared to Industry PE (20.2).

PEG Ratio (0.51): Attractive — suggests undervaluation relative to growth.

Dividend Yield (1.62%): Decent for passive income.

Quarterly PAT Decline: Slight drop from ₹234 Cr. to ₹224 Cr. — not alarming but worth noting.

⚖️ Swing Trade Considerations

Pros

Valuation is attractive (low P/E and PEG).

RSI near oversold — potential bounce setup.

Strong ROE and decent dividend yield.

Cons

Weak technicals and momentum.

High leverage and declining institutional interest.

Price far below 52-week high (₹952), with only 46.2% of that range retained.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Ideal Entry Zone: ₹715–₹730 — near recent support and oversold RSI. Look for MACD flattening and volume pickup for confirmation.

🚪 Exit Strategy

If Holding: Consider exiting near ₹770–₹780 — around 50-DMA and short-term resistance.

Stop Loss: ₹700 — breach of this level would invalidate the swing setup.

This setup favors a cautious swing trade with tight risk management. The valuation is compelling, but technicals need to improve before conviction builds. If you're scanning for stronger momentum plays in the financial sector, I can help you shortlist a few.

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