VGUARD - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:02 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📊 VGUARD shows moderate fundamentals with decent ROCE (17.2%) and ROE (13.6%), supported by low debt levels. However, the stock is trading below both 50 DMA (348 ₹) and 200 DMA (367 ₹), indicating bearish momentum. RSI at 34.5 suggests the stock is oversold, which could provide a short-term bounce opportunity. Valuation is stretched with a P/E of 57.9 compared to industry average of 49.3, and PEG ratio of 14.4 signals expensive growth.

✅ Optimal Entry Price: Around 310–320 ₹ (near oversold support zone)

🚪 Exit Strategy (if already holding): Consider exit near 345–350 ₹ (close to 50 DMA resistance), or if RSI rises above 60.

Positive

• 📈 ROCE (17.2%) and ROE (13.6%) show reasonable capital efficiency.
• 💰 Low debt-to-equity (0.03) ensures financial stability.
• 📊 Quarterly profit growth (26.4%) reflects improving earnings momentum.
• 💹 PAT increased from 55.7 Cr. to 66.0 Cr., showing earnings strength.

Limitation

• ⚠️ High P/E (57.9) vs industry average (49.3) suggests overvaluation.
• 📉 Trading below DMA 50 & DMA 200 indicates bearish trend.
• 📊 PEG ratio (14.4) highlights expensive growth relative to earnings.
• 📉 Volume below average (89,719 vs 1,63,764) shows weak participation.

Company Negative News

• 📉 FII holding decreased (-0.10%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.

Company Positive News

• 📈 DII holding increased (+1.25%), reflecting strong domestic institutional support.
• 💹 Quarterly PAT growth supports earnings momentum.

Industry

• 🏭 Industry P/E at 49.3 is lower, suggesting peers may be more attractively valued.
• 📊 Sector outlook remains steady, but valuations are generally high.

Conclusion

⚖️ VGUARD is a cautious swing trade candidate. Oversold RSI offers potential for a short-term bounce, but bearish technicals and stretched valuations limit upside. Entry near 310–320 ₹ provides margin of safety, while exit near 345–350 ₹ is prudent. Strict stop-loss discipline is essential.

Would you like me to extend this into a basket overlay with peer benchmarking so you can compare VGUARD against other consumer electrical peers, or keep the focus only on this single stock setup?