UPL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 2.6
| Stock Code | UPL | Market Cap | 51,610 Cr. | Current Price | 612 ₹ | High / Low | 812 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 103 | Book Value | 162 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.98 % | ROCE | 1.26 % |
| ROE | 8.20 % | Face Value | 2.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 683 ₹ | DMA 200 | 693 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 3.31 % | Chg in DII Hold | -1.05 % | PAT Qtr | 39.1 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 416 Cr. |
| RSI | 36.4 | MACD | -26.0 | Volume | 28,71,693 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 20,82,417 |
| Low price | 580 ₹ | High price | 812 ₹ | PEG Ratio | -8.53 | Debt to equity | 0.07 |
| 52w Index | 13.7 % | Qtr Profit Var | -93.7 % | EPS | 25.6 ₹ | Industry PE | 21.3 |
📊 UPL shows weak potential for swing trading at present. Fundamentals are under pressure with EPS (25.6 ₹), ROE (8.20%), and ROCE (1.26%) reflecting poor efficiency. Technical indicators are bearish: RSI at 36.4 suggests oversold conditions, while MACD (-26.0) signals continued weakness. The current price (612 ₹) is below both the 50 DMA (683 ₹) and 200 DMA (693 ₹), showing a clear downtrend. Valuation is stretched with a very high P/E (103) compared to industry PE (21.3), and quarterly PAT dropped sharply from 416 Cr. to 39.1 Cr. Despite this, FII inflows (+3.31%) provide some support, and debt-to-equity is low at 0.07.
✅ Optimal Entry Price: Around 600–615 ₹ (near support levels).
🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 675–690 ₹ (DMA resistance) unless strong reversal occurs.
🌟 Positive
- EPS of 25.6 ₹ indicates profitability despite weak margins.
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07 shows financial stability.
- FII holdings increased by 3.31%, showing foreign investor confidence.
- Dividend yield of 0.98% adds investor appeal.
⚠️ Limitation
- Stock trades below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA, signaling bearish trend.
- RSI and MACD indicate weak momentum.
- High P/E (103) compared to industry PE (21.3) suggests severe overvaluation.
- ROCE (1.26%) and ROE (8.20%) reflect poor efficiency.
📰 Company Negative News
- Quarterly PAT dropped sharply from 416 Cr. to 39.1 Cr.
- Quarterly profit variation is negative (-93.7%).
- DII holdings decreased by -1.05%, showing reduced domestic institutional support.
📈 Company Positive News
- FII inflows (+3.31%) reflect foreign investor confidence.
- Dividend yield of 0.98% provides some investor support.
- Low debt-to-equity ratio reduces financial risk.
🏭 Industry
- Industry PE is 21.3, much lower than UPL’s 103, suggesting overvaluation.
- Agrichemicals sector outlook remains cyclical, influenced by global demand and commodity pricing.
🔎 Conclusion
UPL is a weak candidate for swing trading due to poor profitability, bearish technicals, and stretched valuation. Traders may attempt entries near 600–615 ₹ with strict stop-losses, targeting 675–690 ₹. Risk remains high, but FII inflows and low debt provide limited support for potential short-term recovery.