UPL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.6

🌾 UPL Swing Trade Analysis

UPL shows signs of short-term technical stability and a sharp earnings rebound, but weak capital efficiency and high valuation temper its swing trade appeal.

✅ Strengths

Earnings Rebound: PAT surged from a loss of ₹76 Cr. to a profit of ₹122 Cr. — a 971% turnaround.

EPS: ₹35.5 — supports valuation.

Debt-to-Equity: 0.05 — very low leverage.

Price Above 50 & 200 DMA: Current price ₹699 is above both DMA 50 (₹696) and DMA 200 (₹646), indicating trend support.

FII Sentiment Positive: Foreign institutions increased holdings by 0.68%.

Volume Surge: Current volume is ~30% above 1-week average, showing rising interest.

⚠️ Weaknesses

MACD: -0.66 — bearish crossover, signaling short-term weakness.

RSI: 48.4 — neutral zone, lacking momentum.

ROCE: 1.26% / ROE: 8.20% — poor capital efficiency.

High P/E (83.0) vs Industry PE (31.8) — significantly overvalued.

Negative PEG Ratio (-6.88) — earnings growth doesn’t justify valuation.

DII Sentiment Negative: Domestic institutions reduced holdings by 0.47%.

🎯 Trade Strategy

Optimal Entry Price: ₹685–₹695

Enter near 50 DMA if MACD flattens and RSI trends upward.

Exit Plan (If Holding)

Target Exit: ₹725–₹735

Conservative target near recent high of ₹741.

Stop Loss: ₹670

Below 200 DMA to manage downside risk.

UPL is a fair swing candidate for traders who can monitor technical reversals and manage valuation risk. Let me know if you'd like to compare it with other agrochemical or mid-cap industrial stocks.

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