UPL - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.3

📊 Analysis Summary

UPL is currently exhibiting strong bullish momentum and has delivered a massive earnings surprise, making it a compelling short-term swing trade candidate. While its valuation and return ratios are not ideal for long-term investing, the technical setup favors a continuation of the uptrend in the near term.

✅ Strengths Supporting a Swing Trade

Quarterly PAT Growth: +826%

PAT jumped from ₹902 Cr. to ₹1,075 Cr. — a powerful earnings catalyst.

MACD: +19.9

Strong bullish momentum — confirms trend continuation.

RSI: 69.5

Approaching overbought territory — signals strength but requires caution.

Volume Surge: 36.4L vs Avg 30.6L

High trading activity — confirms breakout interest.

Trading Above DMA 50 & 200 (₹672 & ₹621)

Technically strong — supports bullish bias.

FII Holding ↑ 0.68%

Foreign investors increasing exposure — positive sentiment.

52W Index: 96.1%

Near yearly high — strong momentum.

⚠️ Risks to Watch

P/E: 73.3 vs Industry PE: 36.5

Highly overvalued — limits upside beyond short-term.

PEG Ratio: –1.82

Negative PEG suggests earnings growth may not justify valuation.

ROCE: 7.66% & ROE: 3.01%

Weak profitability — not ideal for sustained performance.

DII Holding ↓ 0.47%

Domestic institutions trimming positions — mixed sentiment.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Entry Zone: ₹700–₹710

Minor pullback zone near breakout level — ideal for low-risk entry.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Exit Target: ₹745–₹760

Near recent high — good level to book profits before potential consolidation.

Stop Loss: ₹685

Below DMA 50 — protects against reversal.

Would you like to explore other agrochemical or mid-cap chemical stocks with stronger ROE and more attractive valuations for swing trading?

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