UPL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 3.1
| Stock Code | UPL | Market Cap | 63,795 Cr. | Current Price | 755 ₹ | High / Low | 812 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 127 | Book Value | 162 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.79 % | ROCE | 1.26 % |
| ROE | 8.20 % | Face Value | 2.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 743 ₹ | DMA 200 | 701 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 1.83 % | Chg in DII Hold | -0.46 % | PAT Qtr | 39.1 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 416 Cr. |
| RSI | 54.7 | MACD | -13.0 | Volume | 49,05,505 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 45,93,755 |
| Low price | 580 ₹ | High price | 812 ₹ | PEG Ratio | -10.6 | Debt to equity | 0.07 |
| 52w Index | 75.5 % | Qtr Profit Var | -93.7 % | EPS | 25.6 ₹ | Industry PE | 30.9 |
📊 UPL shows weak fundamentals with extremely high P/E, poor ROCE, and sharp decline in quarterly profits. While the stock has strong liquidity and trades above key moving averages, bearish technical indicators and earnings volatility limit its swing trading potential. It is a cautious candidate for short-term trading only.
✅ Optimal Entry Price: Around 730–740 ₹ (near support close to 50 DMA)
🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 790–800 ₹ (resistance zone before 52-week high of 812 ₹).
Positive
- EPS of 25.6 ₹ provides earnings support despite volatility.
- Stock trading above both 50 DMA (743 ₹) and 200 DMA (701 ₹), showing technical strength.
- FII holdings increased (+1.83%), reflecting foreign investor confidence.
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07 indicates low leverage risk.
- Strong trading volume above weekly average, supporting liquidity.
Limitation
- Extremely high P/E (127) compared to industry PE (30.9), suggesting severe overvaluation.
- ROCE (1.26%) and ROE (8.20%) are weak, reflecting poor efficiency.
- MACD negative (-13.0) indicates bearish momentum.
- PEG ratio of -10.6 highlights poor growth relative to valuation.
- Dividend yield of 0.79% offers limited investor return.
Company Negative News
- Quarterly PAT collapsed (39.1 Cr vs 416 Cr), showing sharp earnings decline.
- DII holdings declined (-0.46%), reflecting reduced domestic institutional confidence.
Company Positive News
- FII holdings increased, showing foreign investor optimism.
- Stock price momentum remains above key moving averages.
Industry
- Industry PE at 30.9 is much lower, highlighting UPL’s premium valuation.
- Agricultural chemicals sector faces cyclical demand but benefits from global food security focus.
Conclusion
⚖️ UPL offers limited swing trading potential with entry near 730–740 ₹ and exit near 790–800 ₹. While liquidity and foreign investor interest provide support, weak fundamentals, sharp profit decline, and bearish technicals warrant caution. Best suited for short-term traders seeking modest gains with tight risk management.