⚠ Disclaimer: This report is generated using AI tools and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
UPL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 3.7
| Stock Code | UPL | Market Cap | 51,563 Cr. | Current Price | 611 ₹ | High / Low | 812 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 63.7 | Book Value | 166 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.98 % | ROCE | 8.51 % |
| ROE | 6.22 % | Face Value | 2.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 636 ₹ | DMA 200 | 666 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 2.94 % | Chg in DII Hold | -2.08 % | PAT Qtr | 373 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 39.1 Cr. |
| RSI | 41.1 | MACD | -8.22 | Volume | 8,97,080 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 14,91,328 |
| Low price | 565 ₹ | High price | 812 ₹ | PEG Ratio | -12.2 | Debt to equity | 0.06 |
| 52w Index | 18.5 % | Qtr Profit Var | 591 % | EPS | 9.30 ₹ | Industry PE | 22.0 |
📈 Optimal Entry Price: 600–615 ₹ (near support zone close to 50 DMA)
📉 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 640–660 ₹ (short-term resistance) or cut losses if price falls below 590 ₹.
Positive
- 📊 EPS at 9.30 ₹ supports valuation strength.
- 📈 PAT improved sharply (39.1 Cr. → 373 Cr.), showing strong earnings rebound.
- 💰 Dividend yield of 0.98% provides shareholder returns.
- 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.06, reflecting low leverage.
- 📊 FII holdings increased (+2.94%), showing foreign investor confidence.
- 📈 RSI at 41.1 indicates stock is not overbought, potential for recovery.
Limitation
- ⚠️ High P/E ratio (63.7) compared to industry PE (22.0), indicating overvaluation.
- 📉 ROCE (8.51%) and ROE (6.22%) remain weak.
- 📊 PEG ratio at -12.2 suggests poor growth valuation.
- 📉 MACD negative (-8.22), signaling bearish momentum.
- ⚠️ Trading volume (8.97 lakh) lower than weekly average (14.9 lakh), showing reduced liquidity.
- 📉 Current price below both 50 DMA (636 ₹) and 200 DMA (666 ₹), showing medium-term weakness.
Company Negative News
- ❌ Weak efficiency ratios despite profit rebound.
- ⚠️ DII holdings decreased (-2.08%), showing reduced domestic support.
Company Positive News
- ✅ Quarterly profit variation at +591% shows strong earnings recovery.
- 📈 Foreign institutional investors increasing stake, boosting confidence.
- 📊 Strong 52-week performance (+18.5%).
Industry
- 🌐 Industry PE at 22.0 is much lower than UPL’s PE (63.7), highlighting premium valuation.
- 📊 Agrochemicals sector remains cyclical but supported by global demand and export opportunities.
Conclusion
⚖️ UPL is a moderate swing trade candidate with strong profit recovery and FII support but faces valuation risks and weak technicals. Entry near 600–615 ₹ offers limited upside, with exit near 640–660 ₹. Stop-loss should be maintained around 590 ₹ due to bearish momentum and efficiency concerns.
This analysis frames UPL as a recovery-backed but valuation-sensitive swing candidate. Would you like me to extend this into a sector overlay comparison with peers like PI Industries and Bayer CropScience to benchmark its swing potential?