UPL - Fundamental Analysis: Financial Health & Valuation

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:16 pm

Fundamental Rating: 3.4

📊 Core Financials Breakdown

Profitability

ROE: 8.20% and ROCE: 1.26% — weak return metrics, especially ROCE, which signals poor capital efficiency.

EPS: ₹35.5, with a sharp turnaround in PAT from ₹-76 Cr. to ₹122 Cr. — a 971% swing, but volatility remains a concern.

Debt-to-equity: 0.05 — very low leverage, a positive for financial stability.

Dividend Yield: 0.86% — modest, offering some passive income.

Institutional Sentiment

FII holdings increased (+0.68%), while DII holdings declined (-0.47%) — mixed sentiment.

💰 Valuation Metrics

Metric Value Insight

P/E Ratio 83.0 Extremely high vs. industry average (31.8) — suggests overvaluation.

P/B Ratio ~4.92 Elevated, but not unusual for global agrochemical players.

PEG Ratio -6.88 Negative — indicates erratic or declining earnings growth.

Intrinsic Value ~₹620–₹660 (est.) Current price of ₹699 is slightly above fair value.

🧠 Business Model & Competitive Edge

Core Operations: UPL is a global agrochemical company offering crop protection, seeds, biosolutions, and post-harvest solutions.

Strengths

Global footprint across 130+ countries.

Strong focus on sustainable agriculture and climate-resilient products.

Strategic acquisitions and alliances to expand product portfolio.

Challenges

Weak ROCE and earnings volatility.

PEG ratio and high P/E suggest valuation is not supported by consistent growth.

RSI at 48.4 — neutral, MACD at -0.66 — bearish crossover.

📈 Entry Zone & Technicals

DMA 50: ₹696, DMA 200: ₹646 — price is above both, indicating short-term strength.

RSI: 48.4 — neutral zone.

MACD: -0.66 — bearish momentum.

📌 Entry Zone: ₹620–₹660 — ideal for accumulation if price dips and fundamentals stabilize.

🕰️ Long-Term Holding Guidance

2025 Target: ₹592.9–₹744.7

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2026 Target: ₹930–₹1,280

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2030 Target: ₹2,125–₹2,495

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Holding Strategy: UPL has long-term potential driven by global food demand, climate adaptation, and sustainable agriculture. Suitable for patient investors with moderate risk appetite. Accumulate during technical weakness and monitor quarterly earnings for margin recovery.

You can explore deeper insights on Choice India’s UPL analysis or review long-term forecasts on Stocks-Buy’s prediction page.

1

www.stocks-buy.com

2

shareprice-target.com

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