UPL - IntraDay Trade Analysis with Live Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:04 am

IntraDay Trade Rating: 3.9

📊 Analysis: UPL is trading at ₹751, close to its 52-week high (₹776), showing strong bullish sentiment. Price is above both 50 DMA (₹733) and 200 DMA (₹681), confirming trend strength. RSI at 50.0 indicates balanced momentum, while MACD at 3.66 supports positive bias. Current volume (7.6L) is below average (13.9L), suggesting weaker intraday conviction. Fundamentals are mixed with strong EPS (₹37) and PAT growth (+823%), but weak ROCE (1.26%) and high P/E (58.6 vs industry 27.6) raise caution.

💹 Optimal Buy Price: ₹745–₹755 (near current levels with tight entry).

🎯 Profit-Taking Exit Levels: ₹765 (short target), ₹775 (extended target if momentum sustains).

🛡️ Stop-Loss / Loss Protection: ₹735 (below intraday support).

⏱️ If Already Holding: Exit near ₹765–₹775 if momentum sustains. If RSI rises above 60 but volume weakens further, consider early exit. A break below ₹735 should trigger stop-loss.

Positive

• 📈 Trading above DMA 50 & 200 shows bullish bias.
• 💰 PAT growth +823% highlights strong earnings recovery.
• 📊 EPS 37 ₹ supports earnings visibility.
• 🔥 FII holding increased (+2.11%), reflecting foreign investor confidence.

Limitation

• ⚠️ High P/E 58.6 vs industry average (27.6), showing valuation premium.
• 📉 Low ROCE 1.26% reflects weak efficiency.
• 📊 Volume below average reduces intraday conviction.
• 💡 PEG Ratio -4.85 signals poor growth vs valuation.

Company Negative News

• 📉 DII holding reduced (-0.92%), showing weaker domestic support.

Company Positive News

• 📈 FII holding increased (+2.11%), reflecting strong foreign investor interest.
• 📈 PAT improved from ₹122 Cr. to ₹416 Cr., showing earnings momentum.

Industry

• 🌐 Agrochemicals sector trades at PE 27.6, much lower than UPL’s valuation (58.6).
• 📊 Sector outlook stable, but UPL trades at premium requiring momentum-driven entries.

Conclusion

⚖️ UPL is a moderate-to-strong intraday candidate. Technicals show bullish bias near 52-week highs, but weak ROCE and stretched valuation suggest caution. Suitable for momentum scalps with strict stop-loss discipline rather than aggressive intraday positions.

Would you like me to extend this into an agrochemicals sector basket overlay with peers like PI Industries, Rallis India, and Bayer CropScience to benchmark UPL’s intraday setup across the industry?