CESC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:00 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

📊 CESC shows moderate potential for swing trading. The stock is trading close to its 200 DMA (167 ₹) and slightly below its 50 DMA (171 ₹), with RSI at 40.4 indicating mildly oversold conditions. MACD is negative (-1.45), suggesting short-term weakness. Strong dividend yield and steady profit growth support fundamentals, but high debt-to-equity and weak ROE/ROCE limit upside. Optimal entry would be near 165–170 ₹. If already holding, consider exiting near 185–190 ₹ unless momentum strengthens.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Market cap of 22,407 Cr. ensures stability and liquidity.
• 💹 Dividend yield of 3.60% adds investor appeal.
• 📊 Quarterly PAT rose to 242 Cr. from 211 Cr. (+11.0% variation).
• 📈 EPS of 6.36 ₹ supports earnings base.
• 📊 Both FII (+0.16%) and DII (+0.27%) holdings increased, showing investor confidence.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 ROCE (9.95%) and ROE (7.97%) are modest compared to peers.
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.12, indicating high leverage.
• 📉 PEG ratio negative (-85.7), suggesting poor valuation relative to growth.
• 📉 RSI at 40.4 and MACD negative (-1.45) indicate weak momentum.

🚨 Company Negative News

No major fresh negative news reported, but high leverage and weak return ratios remain concerns.

🌟 Company Positive News

Steady quarterly profit growth and rising institutional investor interest highlight improving sentiment.

🏭 Industry

The power and utilities industry trades at an average PE of 21.9. CESC’s valuation is slightly higher, reflecting moderate growth optimism but also limited efficiency.

📌 Conclusion

CESC is a fair swing trade candidate with stable fundamentals but weak technicals. Best entry near 165–170 ₹ (close to 200 DMA). If already holding, exit near 185–190 ₹ unless momentum breaks resistance. Risk-reward is moderate, with caution advised due to high leverage and weak ROE/ROCE.

I can also prepare a peer comparison of CESC with other utility players like Tata Power or NTPC to highlight relative swing trade opportunities in the power sector.