CESC - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:54 pm

Technical Rating: 3.3

📈 Technical Analysis

• Chart Patterns: Stock is trading below its 52-week high (192 ₹) but well above its low (119 ₹), showing consolidation after recovery.
• Moving Averages: Current price (169 ₹) is below 50 DMA (171 ₹) but slightly above 200 DMA (167 ₹), indicating mixed signals with mild bearish bias.
• RSI: At 40.4, RSI is weak, suggesting limited buying strength and potential oversold conditions.
• MACD: Negative (-1.45), showing bearish momentum and possible short-term correction.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, signaling weakness and possible consolidation.
• Volume Trends: Current volume (19,18,024) is higher than 1-week average (15,04,356), indicating strong participation but with selling pressure.

🎯 Momentum & Trade Zones

• Support Levels: 167 ₹ (200 DMA), 160 ₹ (near-term support), 150 ₹ (psychological support).
• Resistance Levels: 171 ₹ (50 DMA), 180 ₹ (near-term resistance), 192 ₹ (52-week high).
• Entry Zone: 165–170 ₹ (near support, favorable risk-reward).
• Exit Zone: 180–190 ₹ (near resistance/top band).
• Trend Status: Consolidating with mild bearish signals due to negative MACD and weak RSI.

✅ Positive

• Dividend yield of 3.60% provides strong shareholder returns.
• Quarterly PAT improved (242 Cr. vs 211 Cr.), showing earnings growth (+11%).
• EPS of 6.36 ₹ supports earnings visibility.
• FII (+0.16%) and DII (+0.27%) holdings increased, showing institutional confidence.

⚠️ Limitation

• High debt-to-equity ratio (1.12) indicates leverage risk.
• ROCE (9.95%) and ROE (7.97%) are modest, reflecting average capital efficiency.
• PEG ratio (-85.7) reflects negative growth expectations.
• Stock P/E (26.6) is above industry average (21.9), suggesting premium valuation.

📉 Company Negative News

• High leverage with debt-to-equity ratio at 1.12.
• Weak RSI and negative MACD indicate poor short-term momentum.

📊 Company Positive News

• Quarterly PAT growth of 11% shows operational improvement.
• Dividend yield of 3.60% enhances investor appeal.
• Institutional investors (FII & DII) increased stake, boosting sentiment.

🏭 Industry

• Industry P/E at 21.9, lower than CESC’s valuation, suggesting premium pricing.
• Power and utilities sector remains stable with steady demand but faces regulatory and cost challenges.

📝 Conclusion

• CESC is consolidating with mild bearish signals, trading near support levels.
• Fundamentals show steady earnings and strong dividend yield, but leverage and weak momentum are concerns.
• Optimal strategy: Accumulate cautiously near support (165–170 ₹) and book profits near resistance (180–190 ₹).
• Short-term outlook: Consolidation; long-term outlook depends on debt management and sustained earnings growth.