SAREGAMA - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

📊 Analysis Summary

SAREGAMA is currently in a downtrend phase, but its strong fundamentals and low debt make it a potential reversal candidate for swing trading. The setup is speculative and best suited for traders looking to catch a bounce from oversold levels.

✅ Strengths

Zero Debt: Clean balance sheet — reduces financial risk.

ROCE (18.0%) & ROE (13.1%): Strong profitability metrics.

Institutional Buying: FII (+0.23%) and DII (+0.60%) increases suggest improving sentiment.

Dividend Yield (0.94%): Offers some passive return.

EPS (₹10.6): Solid earnings base.

Trading Near 52-Week Low: Current price ₹481 is far below high of ₹689 — potential for rebound.

⚠️ Weaknesses

MACD Negative (-8.07): Strong bearish momentum.

RSI at 39.1: Near oversold — but not yet reversing.

Trading Below 50 & 200 DMA: Current price is below both ₹508 and ₹510 — confirms downtrend.

High P/E (46.2 vs Industry 35.2): Overvaluation risk.

PEG Ratio (4.80): Indicates expensive relative to growth.

Declining PAT: ₹56.2 Cr. vs ₹62.3 Cr. — earnings contraction.

Low Volume: Below 1-week average — weak participation.

📈 Optimal Entry Price

Buy Zone: ₹470–₹475 Near recent support and oversold RSI — speculative entry for bounce traders.

📉 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Target Exit: ₹505–₹515 Near 50 & 200 DMA — likely resistance zone.

Stop Loss: ₹455 Below recent swing low — exit if weakness continues.

🧠 Final Thoughts

SAREGAMA is a watchlist candidate for swing trading, not a high-conviction setup. If RSI rebounds and volume improves, it could offer a short-term recovery trade. Otherwise, best to wait for trend confirmation above ₹510.

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