NTPCGREEN - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📉 Optimal Entry Price: ₹98–₹100 (near RSI support and below 50 DMA)

📈 Exit Strategy (if holding): ₹112–₹115 (short-term resistance zone)

🔷 Positive

• 📈 MACD at 0.48: Indicates early bullish crossover and potential upward momentum.
• 📈 Trading near 50 DMA: Offers a technically favorable entry point.
• 📊 Q2FY26 PAT of ₹86 Cr.: Reflects a 131% YoY growth, showing improving profitability

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• 📈 Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42: Indicates moderate leverage, manageable for a capital-intensive sector.
• 📊 Strong EBITDA margin of 86.5%: Reflects operational efficiency

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⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 High P/E of 156: Significantly overvalued compared to industry average of 31.0.
• 📉 Low ROE (3.95%) and ROCE (6.42%): Suggest weak capital efficiency.
• 📉 Volume below 1-week average: Indicates declining short-term interest.
• 📉 No dividend yield: Not attractive for income-focused investors.
• 📉 FII and DII holdings declined: Reflect cautious institutional sentiment.

📉 Company Negative News

• 📉 Q2FY26 PAT dropped from ₹165 Cr. to ₹86 Cr. QoQ, raising concerns over earnings volatility

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• 📉 Brokerages flagged limited track record in green asset development and subpar return on capex

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📈 Company Positive News

• 📈 Revenue rose 22% YoY to ₹612 Cr., and EBITDA grew 26% YoY in Q2FY26

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• 📊 NTPC Green signed an MoU with Paradip Port Authority for green hydrogen collaboration

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• 📈 ICICI Securities rated the stock “Add” post Q2 results, citing long-term growth potential

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⚡ Industry

• 🔋 Operates in the renewable energy sector, which benefits from government incentives and rising ESG focus.
• 📈 Industry P/E of 31.0 suggests NTPC Green trades at a steep premium, reflecting high growth expectations.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ NTPC Green is a speculative swing trade candidate with strong revenue growth and technical support, but valuation and earnings volatility warrant caution.
• 📌 Entry near ₹98–₹100 offers a low-risk setup if MACD sustains and RSI rebounds.
• 🚪 If already holding, consider exiting near ₹112–₹115, aligning with resistance and short-term recovery zone.

Sources

CNBC TV18 – NTPC Green Q2 results

Business Today – Brokerage views on NTPC Green

Financial Express – NTPC sector outlook

Would you like me to compare NTPC Green with IREDA or SJVN to help refine your swing trade strategy?