NTPCGREEN - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.6

📉 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Price Trend: Current price ₹106 is below both 50 DMA (₹108) and 200 DMA (₹111) — bearish short-term trend.

RSI (43.5) — weak momentum, approaching oversold territory.

MACD (-0.21) — negative crossover, signaling downward pressure.

Volume Spike: Current volume is significantly higher than 1-week average — could indicate selling pressure or speculative interest.

📊 Fundamental Overview

Valuation

P/E (161) vs Industry P/E (41.2) — extremely overvalued.

EPS (₹0.67) — very low earnings relative to price.

Book Value (₹21.9) vs Price (₹106) — trading at nearly 5x book value.

Profitability

ROCE (4.87%) and ROE (3.84%) — weak returns on capital and equity.

Dividend Yield: 0.00% — no income cushion for holding.

Quarterly Performance

PAT Qtr: ₹220 Cr vs Prev Qtr: ₹233 Cr — slight decline.

Qtr Profit Var: +59.1% YoY — strong growth, but not reflected in margins.

Debt-to-Equity (1.05) — relatively high leverage.

FII/DII Holding

Both FII (-0.13%) and DII (-0.21%) reduced positions — institutional caution.

⚠️ Swing Trade Strategy

Not Ideal for Swing Trading at current levels due to

Weak technicals

Overvaluation

Poor profitability metrics

If Entering, wait for a reversal signal

Optimal Entry Price: ₹95–₹98 (closer to support zone and psychological level)

Target Exit Price: ₹115–₹120 (near 50 DMA and resistance zone)

Stop Loss: ₹91 (below recent support)

🧭 If You Already Hold the Stock

Exit on bounce near ₹115–₹120, especially if RSI improves and MACD turns positive.

Cut losses if price breaks below ₹91 or if RSI dips below 40 with continued MACD weakness.

This stock may be better suited for long-term thematic investing (e.g., green energy) rather than short-term swing trades.

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