NTPCGREEN - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.5

📊 NTPC Green shows weak potential for swing trading. The RSI at 26.0 indicates oversold conditions, but the MACD (-2.09) remains negative, reflecting bearish sentiment. The stock is trading below both its 50 DMA (95.9 ₹) and 200 DMA (103 ₹), showing lack of momentum. Fundamentals are stretched with a very high P/E of 139 compared to industry P/E of 26.7, low ROCE (6.42%), and low ROE (3.95%). Quarterly PAT has declined significantly, though volumes remain steady. Short-term rebound is possible near support, but risk remains high.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 85–87 ₹ (near recent low and oversold zone).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 95–98 ₹ (50 DMA resistance) unless momentum improves.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong trading volume (24.2 lakh) above average weekly volume (23.4 lakh)
• 📊 52-week index performance at 9.98% shows modest appreciation
• 📈 Sector focus on renewable energy provides long-term growth potential

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Current price (89.9 ₹) is below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA
• 📉 RSI at 26.0 shows oversold but weak momentum
• 📉 MACD at -2.09 signals bearish trend
• 📉 Dividend yield at 0.00% offers no income support

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly PAT dropped from 165 Cr. to 86 Cr.
• 📉 EPS at only 0.65 ₹ reflects weak profitability
• 📉 FII holding declined by -0.06% and DII holding by -0.03%

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Quarterly profit variation (+34.8%) compared to prior year shows some improvement trend
• 📊 Renewable energy positioning aligns with government initiatives

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry P/E at 26.7 highlights NTPC Green’s stretched valuation
• ⚡ Renewable energy sector benefits from policy support and long-term demand growth

📝 Conclusion

⚖️ NTPC Green is not a strong candidate for swing trading due to weak fundamentals, high valuation, and bearish technicals. Entry near 85–87 ₹ may provide a speculative rebound opportunity, but exit should be considered near 95–98 ₹ unless momentum improves significantly. Short-term traders face high risk, while long-term investors may wait for earnings stability before considering entry.

I can also prepare a side-by-side HTML comparison of NTPC Green vs NHPC swing trade setups so you can evaluate renewable sector opportunities more clearly.