HAL - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.6

📉 Technical Overview

Current Price (₹4,498) is below 50 DMA (₹4,770) and just above 200 DMA (₹4,413), signaling near-term weakness but potential support.

RSI (29.7): Oversold territory, suggesting possible bounce, but not a confirmed reversal.

MACD (-94.6): Deep in bearish territory — heavy selling pressure.

Volume Spike: Current volume higher than weekly average — possibly panic-driven or institutional exits.

📊 Fundamentals & Valuation

P/E (36.0) vs Industry PE (68.0): Moderately valued within a high-P/E segment.

PEG Ratio (1.99): Indicates stretched valuation relative to earnings growth.

EPS (₹125): Healthy, but not enough to counter technical decline.

ROCE (33.9%) / ROE (26.1%): Exceptional operational performance.

Debt to Equity (0.00): Zero debt — strong financial footing.

Book Value (₹523): Good intrinsic value cushion.

🧮 Recent Earnings & Sentiment

Qtr Profit Var (–7.71%): Profit contraction may be triggering technical breakdown.

FII Holding: Mild decline (–0.18%) — not encouraging for short-term setups.

DII Holding: Modest uptick (+0.41%) — some domestic support.

🎯 Trade Setup

📥 Optimal Entry: Wait for stabilization near ₹4,380–₹4,420 range (close to 200 DMA). Entry is only favorable if RSI rebounds above 35 and MACD starts flattening.

📤 Exit If Holding: Consider exiting on a relief rally near ₹4,700–₹4,750 if momentum fades and RSI struggles past 45. A failure to breach 50 DMA could trap further downside.

🧠 Verdict

HAL is fundamentally strong but technically weak for a swing trade right now. Oversold conditions might tempt reversal plays, but without confirmation from momentum indicators, it’s a risky setup. Safer to observe and wait for bullish signals.

Would you like to scan for stronger swing setups across the defense sector or compare HAL to its peers?

Edit in a page