NTPCGREEN - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Investment Rating: 2.9

🌱 Fundamental Analysis: NTPC Green Energy Ltd. (NTPCGREEN)

NTPC Green is a renewable energy subsidiary of NTPC, positioned in a high-growth sector. However, its current financials reflect early-stage inefficiencies, extremely high valuation, and weak profitability — making it a speculative bet rather than a solid long-term investment at current levels.

Metric Value Implication

Stock P/E 161 Extremely overvalued vs. industry PE of 41.2 — major red flag

PEG Ratio — Not available — likely due to inconsistent or negligible earnings growth

ROE / ROCE 3.84% / 4.87% Very weak — poor capital efficiency

Dividend Yield 0.00% No income — purely growth-oriented

Debt-to-Equity 1.05 High — typical for infra/renewables, but adds risk

EPS ₹0.67 Very low — does not justify current valuation

Profit Growth (QoQ) +59.1% Strong — but from a low base, needs consistency

📉 Technical & Trend Analysis

Current Price: ₹106

DMA 50 / DMA 200: ₹108 / ₹111 — trading below both, short-term weakness

RSI: 43.5 — approaching oversold zone

MACD: -0.21 — bearish momentum

Volume: High — possible distribution or speculative interest

✅ Is It a Good Long-Term Investment?

Not at current levels. NTPC Green has potential due to its sector, but the valuation is extremely stretched, and profitability is weak. It may become attractive once earnings improve and valuation normalizes.

🎯 Ideal Entry Price Zone

Buy Zone: ₹85–₹95

Near recent lows and technical support

Entry only if ROE improves above 8% and P/E drops below 60

Avoid chasing above ₹110 unless earnings growth becomes consistent

🧭 Exit Strategy / Holding Period (If Already Holding)

If you're already invested

Holding Period: 1–2 years — speculative hold with close monitoring

Exit Strategy

Partial Exit near ₹140–₹150 if valuation remains irrational (P/E > 100)

Hold only if PAT growth sustains and ROE improves

Reassess if debt rises or profitability stagnates — risk of long-term underperformance

Would you like a comparison with other renewable energy plays like SJVN, Adani Green, or Tata Power to explore better risk-adjusted opportunities in the sector?

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