NTPCGREEN - Fundamental Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Fundamental Rating: 2.8

NTPC Green Energy Ltd. is a promising player in India’s renewable space, but its fundamentals currently suggest caution for long-term value investors.

📉 Core Financials Assessment

Profitability

ROCE: 4.87%, ROE: 3.84% — significantly low, raising concerns about capital efficiency.

EPS: ₹0.67 — reflects weak earnings despite large market cap.

PAT Trend

Slight decline from ₹233 Cr. to ₹220 Cr.; however, Qtr Profit Var: +59.1% likely reflects YoY comparisons from a smaller base.

Debt Profile

Debt-to-equity: 1.05 — relatively high for a utility firm; typical in infra-led growth, but adds financial stress.

Dividend

Yield: 0.00% — not ideal for investors seeking passive income.

📊 Valuation Snapshot

Metric Value Insight

P/E Ratio 161 Highly inflated; speculative pricing rather than earnings strength

P/B Ratio ~4.84 Expensive relative to tangible assets

PEG Ratio Not available Limits analysis of growth-adjusted valuation

Industry PE 41.2 NTPC Green trades at nearly 4x sector average

Verdict: Stock is overvalued given current earnings and return metrics.

⚡ Business Model & Strategic Positioning

A subsidiary of NTPC, focusing on solar, wind, and hybrid power projects—key enabler of India's green energy transition.

Benefits from parent support, public sector trust, and long-term policy tailwinds.

Still early-stage in terms of scale and profitability; cash flow clarity, execution timelines, and regulatory dynamics need monitoring.

Competitive edge still evolving; not yet dominant in renewable share vs. private giants like Adani Green or ReNew Power.

📉 Technical Indicators

RSI: 43.5 — mildly bearish, stock lacks momentum.

MACD: -0.21 — supports neutral-to-negative short-term outlook.

Trading below 50-DMA & 200-DMA, with recent volume spike — suggests potential dip buying, but not yet a reversal.

🎯 Entry Zone & Investment Outlook

Cautious Entry Range: ₹85–₹95 if speculative interest cools off.

Ideal for

High-risk tolerance investors betting on long-term clean energy themes.

Those seeking strategic exposure in India's public sector green initiatives.

Not recommended as a core long-term holding until ROE/ROCE and debt metrics improve substantially.

If you’d like to compare NTPC Green with Adani Green, Tata Power, or ReNew Power for a sector-level positioning, I’d be happy to run that analysis for you. Let's find the true bright spark. ⚡

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