NIVABUPA - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.6

📊 NIVABUPA shows weak fundamentals and limited technical strength. The high P/E (150) compared to industry average (42.8) indicates severe overvaluation. Negative quarterly PAT and low ROCE/ROE further weaken its case as a swing trade candidate. RSI (47.0) and negative MACD (-0.25) suggest neutral-to-bearish momentum.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 65–68 ₹ (near support zone, close to 52-week low).

🚪 Exit Strategy (if already holding): Consider exit near 78–80 ₹ (DMA 200 resistance) or cut losses if price falls below 61 ₹.

Positive

• ✅ Improvement in quarterly PAT (-91.4 Cr. to -35.3 Cr.), showing reduced losses.
• ✅ Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.07) provides financial stability.
• ✅ DII holding increased (+0.25%), reflecting some domestic institutional support.

Limitation

• ⚠️ Extremely high P/E (150) compared to industry average (42.8), signaling overvaluation.
• ⚠️ Weak ROCE (7.45%) and ROE (8.18%), showing poor capital efficiency.
• ⚠️ EPS of only 0.51 ₹, reflecting weak earnings power.
• ⚠️ PEG ratio of 3.33 indicates growth does not justify valuation.
• ⚠️ Current price (75.4 ₹) below DMA 50 (76.4 ₹) and DMA 200 (79.1 ₹), showing weak technical trend.
• ⚠️ Volume significantly lower than 1-week average, reflecting reduced trading interest.

Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly losses continue despite improvement, with PAT still negative (-35.3 Cr.).
• 📉 FII holding decreased (-0.04%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.

Company Positive News

• 📈 Losses narrowed compared to previous quarter, indicating gradual improvement.
• 📈 Domestic institutional investors increased stake slightly (+0.25%).

Industry

• 🏭 Industry P/E at 42.8 shows sector is moderately valued compared to NIVABUPA’s extreme valuation.
• 🏭 Insurance and healthcare sector has long-term growth potential, but profitability remains key.

Conclusion

🔎 NIVABUPA is not an attractive swing trade candidate due to weak fundamentals, overvaluation, and negative earnings. Entry should only be considered near 65–68 ₹ for risk-managed setups, with exit around 78–80 ₹. Current momentum is neutral-to-bearish, so traders should exercise caution and wait for confirmation signals before entry.

Would you like me to extend this with a basket overlay comparing NIVABUPA against other insurance/healthcare stocks, or a sector scan to check if capital rotation favors financials or IT instead?