NIVABUPA - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 2.8

📉 Swing Trade Analysis: NIVABUPA (Niva Bupa Health Insurance)

NIVABUPA currently presents a weak swing trade setup. Despite strong institutional interest and low debt, the stock suffers from poor earnings momentum, high valuation, and weak technical indicators — making it a speculative and high-risk candidate for short-term trading.

✅ Positives

Institutional Sentiment

FII Holding Increase (+1.86%) and DII Holding Increase (+5.35%): Strong institutional accumulation.

Financial Structure

Debt-to-Equity (0.08): Very low leverage.

Trading near DMA 200 (₹81.2): Potential support zone.

⚠️ Negatives

Fundamentals

PAT Qtr (-₹91.4 Cr.) vs Prev Qtr (₹206 Cr.): Sharp earnings reversal.

Qtr Profit Var (-386%): Severe contraction.

ROCE (7.45%) and ROE (8.18%): Weak capital efficiency.

No EPS reported: Lack of clarity on profitability.

Dividend Yield (0.00%): No passive income.

Valuation

P/E (107) vs Industry PE (39.8): Extremely overvalued.

PEG Ratio (2.38): Indicates poor growth relative to valuation.

Technical Weakness

MACD (-0.48): Bearish crossover — signals fading momentum.

RSI (47.4): Neutral to weak.

Volume below average: Weak trader interest.

52w Index (43.4%): Trading in lower half of yearly range.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Entry Zone: ₹78–₹80

A dip near the 200 DMA offers a speculative entry, but only with confirmation of MACD reversal and volume surge.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Target Exit Price: ₹95–₹100

Near intermediate resistance and psychological level.

Stop Loss: ₹75

Just below recent support and round-number threshold.

Time Horizon: 1–2 weeks, depending on technical recovery and volume behavior.

This setup suits high-risk traders who are comfortable with speculative plays and can monitor technical signals closely. Let me know if you'd like help scanning stronger setups or tracking this trade.

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