NIVABUPA - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.5

📉 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Current Price (₹81.5) is below 50-DMA (₹84.9) and just above 200-DMA (₹80.8) — weak technical setup.

RSI (40.4): Slightly above oversold — no clear momentum yet.

MACD (-0.13): Negative — bearish signal.

Volume Spike: Current volume is more than double the weekly average — could indicate speculative interest or a reaction to news.

📊 Fundamental Snapshot

P/E (107) vs Industry PE (39.0): Extremely overvalued — pricing in aggressive growth.

PEG Ratio (2.34): High — growth doesn’t justify valuation.

ROCE (6.75%) & ROE (7.33%): Weak — low efficiency and returns.

EPS & Book Value: Not available — lack of clarity on earnings and asset base.

Dividend Yield (0.00%): No income support.

Quarterly Profit Swing: From ₹206 Cr. profit to ₹91.4 Cr. loss — highly volatile.

Institutional Activity: FII (+1.86%) and DII (+5.35%) increased holdings — positive sentiment despite weak fundamentals.

⚖️ Swing Trade Suitability

Why It’s a Weak Candidate

Poor earnings consistency and high valuation.

Weak technical indicators with no clear reversal.

Lack of dividend or book value support.

Momentum indicators suggest caution.

What Could Improve It

RSI rising above 50 with MACD crossover.

Price reclaiming 50-DMA with volume confirmation.

Stabilization in earnings and clearer valuation metrics.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Entry Zone: ₹75–₹78 — near support and 200-DMA. Only consider entry if RSI improves and MACD turns positive.

🚪 Exit Strategy

If Holding: Consider exiting near ₹88–₹90 — resistance zone below 50-DMA.

Stop Loss: ₹74 — below recent support to manage downside risk.

NIVABUPA shows signs of speculative interest but lacks the technical and fundamental strength for a confident swing trade. If you're already in, watch for a short-term bounce to exit near resistance. Otherwise, patience is key until the setup improves.

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