NIVABUPA - Investment Analysis: Buy Signal or Bull Trap?
Back to ListInvestment Rating: 2.2
| Stock Code | NIVABUPA | Market Cap | 14,559 Cr. | Current Price | 78.7 ₹ | High / Low | 95.2 ₹ |
| Book Value | 0.00 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.00 % | ROCE | 7.45 % | ROE | 8.18 % |
| Face Value | 10.0 ₹ | DMA 50 | 77.0 ₹ | DMA 200 | 78.5 ₹ | Chg in FII Hold | -0.41 % |
| Chg in DII Hold | 0.73 % | PAT Qtr | -87.6 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | -35.3 Cr. | RSI | 56.8 |
| MACD | 0.62 | Volume | 22,05,337 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 19,50,643 | Low price | 61.0 ₹ |
| High price | 95.2 ₹ | 52w Index | 51.8 % | Qtr Profit Var | -762 % | EPS | -0.03 ₹ |
| Industry PE | 33.8 |
📊 Analysis: NIVABUPA currently shows weak fundamentals with ROE at 8.18% and ROCE at 7.45%, reflecting poor efficiency. The company has reported consecutive quarterly losses (PAT -87.6 Cr. vs -35.3 Cr.), with EPS at -0.03 ₹, indicating negative earnings. Dividend yield is 0%, offering no income support. Valuation metrics such as P/E and PEG are unavailable due to losses, making it difficult to justify long-term investment. Technical indicators (RSI ~56.8, MACD slightly positive) suggest neutral momentum, with price hovering around both 50 DMA (77 ₹) and 200 DMA (78.5 ₹). Overall, NIVABUPA is not a strong candidate for long-term investment unless profitability improves significantly.
💰 Ideal Entry Zone: A cautious entry would be in the range of 65 ₹ – 72 ₹, closer to long-term support levels, only for high-risk investors willing to wait for a turnaround.
📈 Exit / Holding Strategy: If already holding, consider reducing exposure or exiting on rallies near 90–95 ₹. Long-term holding is risky given negative earnings, weak ROE/ROCE, and lack of dividends. Investors should only hold if confident in a turnaround strategy, with a horizon of 3–5 years, and monitor quarterly earnings closely.
✅ Positive
- DII holding increased (+0.73%), showing some domestic institutional support.
- Stock trading near DMA levels, suggesting technical stability.
- Market cap of 14,559 Cr. provides scale and visibility.
⚠️ Limitation
- Negative EPS (-0.03 ₹) reflects ongoing losses.
- Weak ROE (8.18%) and ROCE (7.45%) highlight poor efficiency.
- No dividend yield (0.00%), offering no income support.
- Valuation metrics (P/E, PEG) unavailable due to losses.
📉 Company Negative News
- Quarterly PAT worsened to -87.6 Cr. from -35.3 Cr.
- FII holding decreased (-0.41%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.
- Quarterly profit variation (-762%) indicates severe instability.
📈 Company Positive News
- DII holding increased (+0.73%), reflecting domestic support.
- Volume activity remains strong, indicating liquidity in the stock.
🏭 Industry
- Industry P/E at 33.8 indicates sector is moderately valued compared to NIVABUPA’s losses.
- Insurance and healthcare sector expected to benefit from rising demand, but company-specific challenges remain.
🔎 Conclusion
NIVABUPA is currently a weak candidate for long-term investment due to negative profitability metrics, lack of dividends, and unstable earnings. Ideal entry is only for high-risk investors (~65–72 ₹). Existing holders should consider exiting near resistance levels (90–95 ₹) unless confident in a turnaround. Long-term investors should monitor earnings recovery before committing further capital.