NIVABUPA - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 2.6

📊 Chart Patterns: NIVABUPA is trading at 75.4 ₹, below both its 50 DMA (76.4 ₹) and 200 DMA (79.1 ₹). The chart shows weakness after a correction from the 52-week high (95.2 ₹), with support visible near 72–74 ₹.

📈 Moving Averages: Price is below short- and long-term averages, confirming bearish sentiment. Sustaining above 79 ₹ is crucial for recovery.

📉 RSI: At 47.0, RSI is neutral, suggesting consolidation with limited downside but no strong rebound yet.

📉 MACD: Slightly negative (-0.25), showing weak bearish crossover and lack of momentum.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price is near the mid-band, indicating sideways consolidation with limited volatility.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (6.25 lakh) is significantly below average weekly volume (20.2 lakh), showing reduced participation and weak buying interest.

📍 Momentum Signals: Short-term momentum is bearish-to-neutral. RSI suggests consolidation near support but no strong reversal yet.

🎯 Entry Zone: 72–75 ₹ (near support). Suitable only for speculative trades with strict risk management.

🎯 Exit Zone: 79–82 ₹ (near 200 DMA resistance). Strong resistance at 95 ₹ (52-week high).

🔎 Trend Status: The stock is consolidating after a correction, with sideways movement expected near support levels.

Positive

• Quarterly losses narrowed (PAT -35.3 Cr. vs -91.4 Cr.), showing improvement.
• DII holdings increased (+0.25%), showing domestic investor confidence.
• Debt-to-equity ratio is low (0.07), ensuring financial stability.

Limitation

• High P/E (150) compared to industry average (42.8), indicating extreme overvaluation.
• PEG ratio (3.33) suggests poor growth prospects relative to valuation.
• ROCE (7.45%) and ROE (8.18%) are weak compared to peers.
• Volume participation significantly below average.

Company Negative News

• Company continues to post losses (PAT -35.3 Cr.).
• FII holdings declined (-0.04%).
• Stock corrected from 95.2 ₹ to 75.4 ₹.

Company Positive News

• Quarterly losses narrowed compared to previous quarter.
• DII holdings increased (+0.25%).
• Low debt-to-equity ratio supports balance sheet strength.

Industry

• Industry PE is 42.8, much lower than NIVABUPA’s 150, highlighting premium valuation concerns.
• Insurance sector remains defensive with long-term growth potential, but profitability is key.

Conclusion

⚠️ NIVABUPA is consolidating near support levels with weak technical momentum. Fundamentals show improvement in narrowing losses and low debt, but high valuation and poor efficiency metrics limit upside. Traders may consider speculative entries near 72–75 ₹ with exits around 79–82 ₹. Long-term investors should wait for profitability to stabilize before committing further.