NHPC - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.3

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Current Price (₹84.0) is below both 50 DMA (₹85.8) and 200 DMA (₹84.5) — short-term weakness, hovering near long-term support.

RSI (40.8) — approaching oversold zone, potential for reversal.

MACD (-0.40) — mild bearish signal, not yet a strong downtrend.

Volume: Below 1-week average — declining interest, needs confirmation.

📈 Fundamental Overview

Valuation

P/E (28.1) vs Industry P/E (41.2) — relatively undervalued.

PEG Ratio (-5.22) — negative, suggests inconsistent earnings growth.

Profitability

ROCE (7.39%) and ROE (7.67%) — weak returns, typical for PSU utilities.

EPS (₹2.99) — modest earnings base.

Quarterly Performance

PAT Qtr: ₹854 Cr vs Prev Qtr: ₹231 Cr — strong growth (Qtr Profit Var: +57.0%).

Dividend Yield (2.26%) — attractive for holding.

Debt-to-Equity (1.00) — moderate leverage, manageable.

FII/DII Holding

FII up (+0.50%) — mild foreign interest.

DII flat (+0.01%) — neutral domestic stance.

✅ Swing Trade Strategy

Optimal Entry Price: ₹82–₹83 (near RSI support and psychological level).

Target Exit Price: ₹90–₹93 (resistance zone below recent swing highs).

Stop Loss: ₹79 (below recent low and key support).

🧭 If You Already Hold the Stock

Hold with a target of ₹90–₹93.

Exit if price breaks below ₹79 or RSI dips below 38 with MACD divergence.

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