NHPC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.6

📉 Optimal Entry Price: ₹82–₹84 (near RSI support and below DMA levels)

📈 Exit Strategy (if holding): ₹91–₹92 (near 52-week high and resistance)

🔷 Positive

• 📈 Dividend yield of 2.27%: Offers decent income potential for short-term holders.
• 📊 Quarterly PAT growth of 5.25%: Indicates steady earnings improvement.
• 📈 FII holding increased by 0.74%: Reflects growing foreign investor confidence.
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.94: Reasonable leverage for a capital-intensive PSU.
• 📊 EPS of ₹3.12: Supports valuation and profitability metrics.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 RSI at 43.9: Indicates neutral to weak momentum.
• 📉 MACD at -0.04: Suggests lack of clear trend direction.
• 📉 Trading below DMA 50 and 200: Reflects short-term technical weakness.
• 📉 PEG ratio of -7.45: Implies valuation concerns relative to growth.
• 📉 DII holding dropped by 0.09%: Signals mild domestic institutional caution.

📉 Company Negative News

• 📉 Analysts flagged concerns over slow project execution and regulatory delays in hydro power approvals.
• 📉 NHPC’s stock has underperformed broader indices, with a 52-week index of just 61.4%.

📈 Company Positive News

• 📈 NHPC reported a 20% YoY rise in net profit for Q2FY26, driven by higher generation and tariff realization.
• 📊 Management expects strong performance in H2FY26 due to seasonal hydro output and new capacity additions.

⚡ Industry

• 🔌 Operates in the power generation sector, particularly hydroelectric, which benefits from clean energy demand and government support.
• 📈 Industry P/E of 31.0 suggests NHPC trades at a slight discount, offering value for swing traders.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ NHPC is a cautious swing trade candidate with stable fundamentals and income potential, but technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest limited upside.
• 📌 Entry near ₹82–₹84 offers a low-risk setup if RSI rebounds and MACD turns positive.
• 🚪 If already holding, consider exiting near ₹91–₹92, aligning with resistance and 52-week high.

I can also compare NHPC with other power PSUs like SJVN or NTPC to help refine your swing strategy.