NHPC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.1

📊 NHPC shows moderate potential for swing trading. The RSI at 27.3 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting possible rebound opportunities. However, the MACD (-1.45) remains negative, and the stock is trading below both its 50 DMA (79.9 ₹) and 200 DMA (82.8 ₹), reflecting weak momentum. Fundamentals such as a strong dividend yield (2.53%) and increased FII holdings (+0.74%) are positives, but high debt-to-equity (0.99) and relatively low ROCE (7.44%) limit upside in the short term.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 72–74 ₹ (close to recent low and oversold zone).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 80–82 ₹ (DMA resistance) unless momentum strengthens.

✅ Positive

• 💵 Dividend yield of 2.53% provides steady income
• 📈 FII holding increased by 0.74%, showing foreign investor confidence
• 📊 Industry P/E at 26.7 vs NHPC’s 24.3, indicating fair valuation
• 📉 Strong 52-week index performance at 26.0%

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Current price (76.6 ₹) is below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA
• 📉 RSI at 27.3 shows oversold but weak momentum
• 📉 MACD at -1.45 signals bearish trend
• 📉 High debt-to-equity ratio of 0.99 increases financial risk

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly PAT declined from 1,072 Cr. to 926 Cr.
• 📉 PEG ratio of -6.74 suggests poor growth prospects relative to valuation

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Quarterly profit variation shows slight improvement (+3.06%) compared to prior year
• 💵 Consistent dividend payout supports investor confidence

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry P/E at 26.7, slightly higher than NHPC’s 24.3, showing fair valuation
• ⚡ Power sector benefits from government focus on renewable and hydro energy projects

📝 Conclusion

⚖️ NHPC offers moderate swing trade potential. Entry near 72–74 ₹ may provide a rebound opportunity, but exit should be considered around 80–82 ₹ unless momentum improves. Strong dividend yield and FII interest are positives, but high debt and weak technicals limit short-term upside. Long-term investors may benefit from sectoral growth, while swing traders should remain cautious.

Would you like me to also prepare a side-by-side HTML comparison of NCC vs NHPC swing trade setups so you can evaluate which offers better short-term potential?