NHPC - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 2.8

📊 Chart Patterns: NHPC is trading near its recent low (71 ₹) and below its 50 DMA (79.9 ₹) and 200 DMA (82.8 ₹). The chart shows weakness with a downward bias.

📈 Moving Averages: Current price (76.6 ₹) is below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA, confirming bearish momentum.

📉 RSI: At 27.3, RSI is oversold but not extreme, suggesting limited rebound potential.

📉 MACD: Negative (-1.45), showing bearish crossover and weak momentum.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price likely near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and possible volatility compression.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (64.8 lakh) is higher than average weekly volume (56.7 lakh), showing increased selling pressure and heightened activity.

📍 Momentum Signals: Short-term momentum is bearish. Oversold RSI may trigger a mild rebound, but trend remains weak.

🎯 Entry Zone: 71–75 ₹ (near support). Risk-managed entry only for short-term rebound traders.

🎯 Exit Zone: 80–83 ₹ (near 50 DMA and 200 DMA resistance). Strong resistance at 82.8 ₹.

🔎 Trend Status: The stock is reversing downward from highs and currently in a bearish phase with possible consolidation near support.

Positive

• Dividend yield of 2.53% provides steady income.
• FII holdings increased (+0.74%), showing foreign investor confidence.
• Quarterly profit grew slightly (+3.06%).
• Industry PE (26.7) is higher than NHPC’s PE (24.3), suggesting fair valuation.

Limitation

• ROCE (7.44%) and ROE (8.40%) are relatively weak.
• Debt-to-equity ratio is high at 0.99.
• PEG ratio (-6.74) indicates poor growth prospects.
• Price trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA.

Company Negative News

• PAT declined from 1,072 Cr. to 926 Cr. sequentially.
• Stock price corrected from 92.3 ₹ to 76.6 ₹.

Company Positive News

• FII holdings increased (+0.74%).
• Dividend yield of 2.53% supports investor returns.
• Quarterly profit variation shows slight improvement (+3.06%).

Industry

• Industry PE is 26.7, slightly above NHPC’s 24.3, suggesting fair valuation.
• Power sector remains defensive with government support for renewable and hydro projects.

Conclusion

⚠️ NHPC is in a bearish trend, trading below key moving averages with oversold RSI. Fundamentals show stability with dividend support and FII interest, but high debt and weak efficiency metrics limit upside. Short-term traders may attempt rebound trades near 71–75 ₹ with exits around 80–83 ₹. Long-term investors should wait for confirmation of reversal above 200 DMA.