LODHA - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 2.8
| Stock Code | LODHA | Market Cap | 81,745 Cr. | Current Price | 818 ₹ | High / Low | 1,534 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 28.5 | Book Value | 202 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.52 % | ROCE | 14.6 % |
| ROE | 13.2 % | Face Value | 10.0 ₹ | DMA 50 | 984 ₹ | DMA 200 | 1,119 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | -0.62 % | Chg in DII Hold | 0.44 % | PAT Qtr | 1,146 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 336 Cr. |
| RSI | 23.6 | MACD | -53.4 | Volume | 12,54,502 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 25,25,136 |
| Low price | 812 ₹ | High price | 1,534 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 0.99 | Debt to equity | 0.54 |
| 52w Index | 0.82 % | Qtr Profit Var | 37.8 % | EPS | 28.7 ₹ | Industry PE | 25.5 |
📊 Lodha (Macrotech Developers) shows weak technicals despite strong profit growth. The RSI at 23.6 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting a possible rebound. However, the MACD (-53.4) reflects strong bearish momentum, and the stock is trading well below both 50 DMA (984 ₹) and 200 DMA (1,119 ₹), showing clear weakness. Fundamentally, the company has decent ROCE (14.6%) and ROE (13.2%), but debt-to-equity of 0.54 and declining FII holdings weigh on sentiment. Overall, this is a risky swing trade candidate with limited upside unless momentum reverses.
💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 810–830 ₹ (near recent support and oversold zone).
📈 Exit Strategy (if already holding): Consider exiting near 950–980 ₹ (resistance zone close to 50 DMA) unless momentum improves significantly.
✅ Positive
- Quarterly PAT surged (1,146 Cr. vs 336 Cr.).
- EPS of 28.7 ₹ reflects earnings strength.
- ROCE (14.6%) and ROE (13.2%) are decent for the sector.
- DII holdings increased (+0.44%), showing domestic support.
⚠️ Limitation
- Stock trading well below 50 DMA and 200 DMA.
- RSI oversold but MACD strongly bearish.
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 indicates moderate leverage.
- Dividend yield is low (0.52%).
📉 Company Negative News
- FII holdings decreased (-0.62%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.
- Stock has dropped sharply from 52-week high (1,534 ₹ to 818 ₹).
📈 Company Positive News
- Strong quarterly profit growth (37.8% variation).
- DII support increased, balancing foreign outflows.
- PEG ratio of 0.99 suggests fair valuation relative to growth.
🏭 Industry
- Industry PE is 25.5, close to Lodha’s 28.5, suggesting valuations are aligned with peers.
- Real estate sector is cyclical and sensitive to interest rates and demand recovery.
🔎 Conclusion
Lodha is a weak swing trade candidate due to bearish technicals and declining foreign investor confidence. Entry near 810–830 ₹ offers limited risk, but upside is capped around 950–980 ₹ unless momentum improves. Strong profit growth supports fundamentals, but technical weakness makes this suitable only for cautious short-term trades.