LODHA - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📊 Macrotech Developers (LODHA) shows moderate potential for swing trading. The stock is currently trading below both its 50 DMA (1,148 ₹) and 200 DMA (1,220 ₹), reflecting short-term weakness. RSI at 30.9 indicates oversold conditions, which could trigger a rebound, but MACD is negative (-29.0), confirming bearish momentum. Fundamentally, the company has decent ROCE (14.6%) and ROE (13.2%), but valuations are stretched with a P/E of 47.7 compared to industry average of 33.7. Quarterly PAT dropped significantly (-14.7%), and volumes are weak compared to average, adding caution.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 1,050–1,080 ₹ (near support zone, close to 52-week low of 1,035 ₹).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 1,200–1,220 ₹ (resistance around 200 DMA) or if RSI crosses 60 with weakening momentum.

✅ Positive

• 📈 ROCE (14.6%) and ROE (13.2%) indicate reasonable capital efficiency
• 💰 EPS of 22.9 ₹ supports earnings base
• 📊 DII holdings increased (+0.54%), showing domestic institutional confidence
• 📦 PEG ratio of 1.66 suggests fair growth-adjusted valuation

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 High P/E ratio (47.7) compared to industry average (33.7)
• 📊 Stock trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA shows technical weakness
• 📉 RSI oversold but MACD negative, limiting immediate upside
• 📊 Weak trading volume compared to average (4,72,861 vs 11,73,496)

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly PAT declined from 644 Cr. to 336 Cr. (-14.7%)
• 📊 Decline in FII holdings (-0.78%)

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 DII holdings increased (+0.54%)
• 💡 RSI oversold zone may trigger technical rebound

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry P/E at 33.7, Lodha trades at a premium valuation
• 🏗️ Real estate sector supported by housing demand and infrastructure growth

📌 Conclusion

⚖️ Lodha is a cautious candidate for swing trading. Fundamentals show moderate efficiency and institutional support, but technical indicators remain weak and profits have declined. A careful entry near 1,050–1,080 ₹ could provide upside potential toward 1,200–1,220 ₹. Traders should monitor RSI and MACD closely to confirm momentum before committing to positions.

I can also outline short-term breakout levels beyond 1,220 ₹ to track potential upside continuation.