FIRSTCRY - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

📊 Swing Trade Analysis for FIRSTCRY Ltd.

Swing Trade Rating: 2.3

🔎 Technical Overview

Current Price ₹352 is well below both DMA 50 ₹369 and DMA 200 ₹443, indicating ongoing weakness.

RSI (38.9) is approaching oversold territory — could hint at short-term bounce but not confirmed.

MACD (-3.63) remains negative → downtrend persists.

Volume slightly above average → increased activity but not necessarily bullish.

📉 Interpretation: Momentum remains weak and trend is clearly bearish. No setup for a bullish swing trade unless reversal cues appear.

🧮 Fundamental Picture

P/E unavailable, EPS negative (-₹3.67) → suggests continued losses.

ROCE (-0.40%), ROE (-4.07%) → capital and shareholder efficiency negative.

Quarterly PAT drop from -₹7.26 Cr to -₹51.8 Cr → worsening performance.

PEG Ratio not available → no visibility on growth-to-valuation measure.

Debt-to-Equity (0.33) → manageable leverage.

Book Value ₹91 vs Current Price ₹352 → suggests premium valuation despite losses.

FII holding ↓0.91%, DII ↑0.57% → mixed sentiment, low institutional conviction.

🧠 Conclusion: Weak earnings, negative profitability metrics, and poor trend alignment make this a very risky swing candidate. Best avoided unless significant reversal unfolds.

✅ Optimal Entry Price

Avoid immediate entry.

Monitor for bottom formation near ₹330–₹340 with improving RSI (>45) and MACD crossover to positive.

Confirmation must include sustained volume above 10–15% of 1-week average.

Stop-Loss: ₹315 — below recent swing lows.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Closest resistance is DMA 50 at ₹369 — consider booking partial gains here if bounce occurs.

Next level: ₹390–₹400 — only if momentum improves.

If price breaches ₹340 with weak volume, consider exiting to prevent deeper drawdown.

Trail stop-loss near ₹335 once price nears ₹369.

⚖️ Final Thought

FIRSTCRY currently lacks the technical and earnings strength to be a viable swing trade candidate. Traders should wait for a confirmed reversal or explore stronger setups with cleaner technical breakouts and earnings visibility.

Want to explore retail or e-commerce stocks showing actual signs of bullish reversal? I can shortlist a few worth tracking.

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