FIRSTCRY - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:54 pm

Technical Rating: 2.8

📈 Technical Analysis

• Chart Patterns: Stock is trading near its 52-week low (277 ₹) and far below its high (665 ₹), indicating a strong downtrend.
• Moving Averages: Current price (297 ₹) is below both 50 DMA (322 ₹) and 200 DMA (381 ₹), confirming bearish bias.
• RSI: At 43.6, RSI is weak but not oversold, suggesting limited buying strength.
• MACD: Negative (-11.5), showing bearish momentum and trend continuation.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, signaling weakness and possible short-term consolidation.
• Volume Trends: Current volume (21,62,175) is significantly higher than 1-week average (11,73,045), indicating strong selling pressure and volatility.

🎯 Momentum & Trade Zones

• Support Levels: 277 ₹ (52-week low), 290 ₹ (near-term support).
• Resistance Levels: 322 ₹ (50 DMA), 350 ₹ (psychological resistance), 381 ₹ (200 DMA).
• Entry Zone: 280–295 ₹ (near support, high-risk accumulation zone).
• Exit Zone: 320–350 ₹ (near resistance/top band).
• Trend Status: Reversing downward, currently weak with bearish signals.

✅ Positive

• Quarterly PAT improved significantly (28.9 Cr. vs 3.18 Cr.), showing earnings recovery.
• DII holdings increased (+2.39%), showing strong domestic institutional confidence.
• Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.08) ensures financial stability.

⚠️ Limitation

• Extremely high P/E ratio (181) compared to industry average (42.2), suggesting severe overvaluation.
• Weak ROCE (2.33%) and ROE (1.17%) indicate poor capital efficiency.
• PEG ratio of 3.82 reflects expensive valuation relative to growth.
• Stock trading at only 5.08% of its 52-week range, showing severe underperformance.

📉 Company Negative News

• FII holdings decreased (-1.81%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.
• Stock price collapsed from highs, reflecting weak sentiment and valuation concerns.

📊 Company Positive News

• Quarterly PAT growth of 346% shows strong operational turnaround.
• DII stake increased significantly, boosting investor sentiment.

🏭 Industry

• Industry P/E at 42.2, much lower than FirstCry’s valuation, suggesting premium pricing.
• E-commerce and retail sector remains competitive but supported by rising digital adoption and consumer demand.

📝 Conclusion

• FirstCry is in a bearish trend, trading near its 52-week low with weak momentum.
• Fundamentals show profit recovery, but valuations are stretched and efficiency metrics remain poor.
• Optimal strategy: Accumulate cautiously near support (280–295 ₹) and book profits near resistance (320–350 ₹).
• Short-term outlook: Weak with possible consolidation; long-term outlook depends on sustained earnings growth and valuation correction.