FIRSTCRY - Investment Analysis: Buy Signal or Bull Trap?
Back to ListInvestment Rating: 2.4
| Stock Code | FIRSTCRY | Market Cap | 14,180 Cr. | Current Price | 272 ₹ | High / Low | 485 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 166 | Book Value | 118 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.00 % | ROCE | 2.33 % |
| ROE | 1.17 % | Face Value | 2.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 289 ₹ | DMA 200 | 353 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | -1.21 % | Chg in DII Hold | 0.93 % | PAT Qtr | 28.9 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 3.18 Cr. |
| RSI | 45.7 | MACD | -5.51 | Volume | 8,09,671 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 7,68,772 |
| Low price | 254 ₹ | High price | 485 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 3.50 | Debt to equity | 0.08 |
| 52w Index | 7.55 % | Qtr Profit Var | 346 % | EPS | 1.61 ₹ | Industry PE | 46.9 |
🔍 Analysis: FirstCry shows weak fundamentals for long-term investment. The stock trades at a very high P/E of 166 compared to the industry average of 46.9, indicating severe overvaluation. ROE (1.17%) and ROCE (2.33%) are extremely low, reflecting poor efficiency in capital utilization. Dividend yield is nil (0.00%), offering no income support. Although quarterly PAT improved significantly (28.9 Cr vs 3.18 Cr), EPS remains low at 1.61 ₹. PEG ratio of 3.50 signals overvaluation relative to growth. Current price (272 ₹) is below DMA supports (50 DMA at 289 ₹, 200 DMA at 353 ₹), showing weakness but offering accumulation potential near lows.
💡 Entry Zone: Ideal entry would be in the 250–265 ₹ range, closer to the 52-week low (254 ₹), offering margin of safety. At current levels, risk outweighs reward for long-term compounding.
📈 Exit / Holding Strategy: If already holding, consider tactical holding for 12–18 months, but exit near 350–370 ₹ resistance if valuations stretch without earnings support. Long-term holding is not advisable unless ROE/ROCE improve significantly and valuations normalize.
🌟 Positive
- Quarterly PAT improved sharply (346% variation)
- DII holdings increased (+0.93%)
- Low debt-to-equity (0.08), strong balance sheet
- RSI at 45.7 indicates neutral momentum
⚠️ Limitation
- Extremely high P/E (166 vs industry 46.9)
- Weak ROE (1.17%) and ROCE (2.33%)
- PEG ratio (3.50) signals overvaluation
- No dividend yield (0.00%)
📉 Company Negative News
- Operational inefficiency reflected in poor ROE/ROCE
- FII holdings reduced (-1.21%)
📈 Company Positive News
- Quarterly profit turnaround (28.9 Cr vs 3.18 Cr)
- DII stake increased, showing domestic confidence
🏭 Industry
- Industry PE at 46.9, far lower than FirstCry’s valuation
- E-commerce and retail sector benefits from rising consumer demand but faces intense competition
✅ Conclusion
FirstCry is currently a weak candidate for long-term investment due to poor efficiency metrics and extreme overvaluation. Ideal entry is near 250–265 ₹ for margin of safety. Existing holders should consider tactical holding but exit near 350–370 ₹ unless fundamentals improve significantly.