ABFRL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 2.5

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Price vs DMA: Trading above both 50-DMA (₹81.9) and 200-DMA (₹87.3), indicating short-term bullish momentum.

RSI (64.6): Approaching overbought zone—momentum is strong but may be nearing exhaustion.

MACD (3.16): Positive crossover—momentum confirmation is present.

Volume: Below 1-week average, suggesting fading interest despite price strength.

📉 Fundamental Snapshot

Metric Value Interpretation

P/E Not available Likely negative due to losses—valuation unclear

ROCE / ROE -0.17% / -3.01% Negative returns—weak operational performance

Debt-to-Equity 0.41 Moderate leverage—financially stable but not ideal

PAT Growth (QoQ) -173.5% Deepening losses—sentiment risk

FII/DII Change -4.57% / -2.51% Strong institutional outflow—negative signal

🧠 Swing Trade Logic

Bias: Speculative momentum setup with poor fundamentals and institutional exit.

Catalyst: MACD strength and price breakout above DMA cluster.

Risk: Negative earnings, weak ROCE/ROE, and heavy FII/DII selling—high volatility and low margin of safety.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Buy Zone: ₹86–₹88

(Near 200-DMA support with stop-loss below ₹83)

🚪 Exit Strategy

If Already Holding

Target Exit: ₹94–₹98 (Resistance zone from recent swing highs)

Stop-Loss: ₹83 (Below 200-DMA and MACD base)

Selva, this setup is purely momentum-driven and doesn’t align with your margin-of-safety or confirmation logic. If you're refining your consumer discretionary basket, I can scan for low-debt, high-ROCE peers with stronger breakout overlays. Let’s build that next layer when you’re ready.

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