ABFRL - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Analysis for Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd. 👗 (ABFRL)

📊 Swing Trade Rating

Rating: 2.1

ABFRL is currently facing fundamental and technical headwinds. While near-term volume is decent, mounting losses and falling investor sentiment make it a speculative play—not ideal for a confident swing trade.

✅ Mild Technical Positives

Near-Term Support: Trading near recent low (₹70.6), possible bounce zone

Volume Uptick: Current volume (68.3L) slightly above 1-week average—suggests short-term activity

RSI (44.6): Hovering near neutral; can rise quickly with positive sentiment

⚠️ High-Risk Red Flags

Negative Profitability: ROCE (-2.4%), ROE (-11.8%), and EPS (-₹3.08) indicate mounting operational losses

No P/E & PEG: Lack of earnings and growth metrics removes valuation anchors

MACD Negative (-1.08): Bearish sentiment, no signal of reversal yet

Loss Surge: PAT deepens to ₹-115 Cr. vs ₹-106 Cr.

52w Index (8.06%): Trading far off yearly highs; momentum severely eroded

FII & DII Sentiment: Both foreign (-4.57%) and domestic (-2.51%) investor holdings have decreased

Book Value (₹55.8) vs CMP (₹75.3): Not trading at a deep discount to justify speculative entry

No Dividend: No passive return incentive

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Only consider entry if technicals show reversal

Target Entry Zone: ₹72–₹74

Conditions for Entry

MACD flattens or turns positive

RSI crosses above 50 with uptick in volume (>75L)

Price closes above 50-DMA (₹79.1) on a bullish candle

Otherwise, avoid initiating a swing trade.

💼 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Initial Exit Level: ₹78–₹80 (50-DMA barrier)

Medium Resistance Zone: ₹88–₹90 (200-DMA hurdle)

Stretch Exit: ₹100+ only in case of sentiment rally

Stop Loss: ₹70 to protect downside below recent support

🧠 Final Thought

ABFRL is best approached with a wait-and-watch mindset. Technical bounce is possible but not yet confirmed. Risk outweighs reward unless broader retail sentiment lifts it up.

Want to explore a sector-relative analysis comparing ABFRL to Trent, TCNS, or Shoppers Stop to see where smart money might be headed? I’d be glad to help chart that out 📊🧭.

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