ABFRL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 2.6

Entry Zone: ₹78–₹82 (only if MACD turns positive and RSI > 52)

Exit if held: ₹92–₹96 (near 200 DMA and post-demerger resistance zone)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📉 Current Price: ₹84.0
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹115 / ₹70.6
• 📉 RSI: 50.5 (neutral)
• 📉 MACD: -0.35 (bearish crossover)
• 📈 Volume: 49.8L vs 1W Avg 45.4L (slightly above average)
• 📈 FII Holding Change: +0.99%
• 📉 DII Holding Change: -4.07%
• 📉 PAT Qtr: -₹59.9 Cr vs -₹21.9 Cr QoQ
• 📉 ROCE & ROE: -0.17% and -3.01% — negative returns
• 📉 EPS: -₹1.08 — loss-making

✅ Positive

• 📈 FII Accumulation: Foreign investors increased stake post demerger.
• 📉 Low Debt: Debt-to-equity at 0.41 — manageable leverage.
• 📈 Above 50 DMA: Price holding above short-term support.
• 📈 Volume Uptick: Slightly above average — early interest visible.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 MACD Negative: Indicates weak momentum.
• 📉 RSI Neutral: No confirmation of bullish strength.
• 📉 Loss-Making: PAT and EPS both negative — weak profitability.
• 📉 DII Exit: Domestic institutions trimmed positions significantly.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Q2FY26 Loss: ₹59.9 Cr due to higher operating expenses and muted festive demand.
• 📉 Demerger Impact: Stock dropped 67% post Madura Fashion & Lifestyle spin-off — technical correction.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Board Approval: Demerger of Madura Fashion into separate listed entity completed on May 22, 2025.
• 📈 FII Sentiment: Positive post restructuring — stake increased by 0.99%.
• 📦 Brand Portfolio: Retains Pantaloons, Reebok, and ethnic wear verticals post demerger.

👗 Industry

• 📈 Festive Recovery: Apparel demand rebounding in Tier 2/3 cities post Q2 lull.
• 📉 Margin Pressure: Retail fashion facing cost inflation and inventory overhang.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ Not ideal for fresh swing entry unless MACD turns positive and RSI > 52 with volume confirmation.
• 📤 If already held, exit near ₹92–₹96 (200 DMA and resistance zone).
• 📉 Post-demerger volatility and weak profitability — suitable only for tactical trades with alert logic.

Sources

India Today – Demerger Impact

Business Standard – Stock Crash

Rediff Money – Board Meeting Outcome