ABFRL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:00 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.5

📊 Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail (ABFRL) shows weak fundamentals and technicals. The company is loss-making with negative ROCE (-0.17%) and ROE (-3.01%), and EPS at 0.00 ₹. Technically, the stock trades below both 50 DMA (78.7 ₹) and 200 DMA (84.1 ₹), with RSI at 44.6 indicating weak momentum and MACD negative. Quarterly losses widened, though FII holdings increased slightly. This makes ABFRL a risky candidate for swing trading, suitable only for speculative short-term plays near support levels.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 72–75 ₹ (near support zone close to 52-week low).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 85–90 ₹ resistance or if price falls below 70 ₹ support.

✅ Positive

• 📈 FII holdings increased (+0.99%), showing some foreign investor interest.
• 💵 Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 indicates manageable leverage.
• 📊 Strong trading liquidity with volume ~20.8 lakh shares.
• 📈 Book value of 66.8 ₹ provides some valuation support.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Negative ROCE (-0.17%) and ROE (-3.01%) highlight poor efficiency.
• 📉 EPS of 0.00 ₹ indicates lack of profitability.
• 📉 Price below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA, signaling technical weakness.
• 📉 Dividend yield of 0.00% offers no income return.
• 📉 RSI and MACD both weak, limiting short-term upside potential.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly losses widened (-59.9 Cr. → -90.9 Cr.), showing deteriorating performance.
• 📉 DII holdings decreased (-4.07%), reflecting weaker domestic institutional confidence.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 FII inflows (+0.99%) add some support to stock momentum.
• 📊 Book value remains higher than current price, offering limited downside cushion.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE is 55.9, but ABFRL has no meaningful P/E due to losses, showing underperformance.
• 📈 Retail and apparel sector outlook remains positive long-term, supported by consumption growth.

📝 Conclusion

⚖️ ABFRL is fundamentally weak and technically bearish, making it a risky swing trade candidate. Entry near 72–75 ₹ may offer speculative opportunities, with exit near 85–90 ₹. Strict risk management is essential given widening losses, weak technical indicators, and declining domestic institutional support.

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