SJVN - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.8

📊 Based on the given parameters, SJVN is a weak-to-moderate candidate for swing trading. The stock is trading below both DMA 50 (80.7 ₹) and DMA 200 (91.8 ₹), indicating a bearish trend. Technical indicators (RSI 22.5, MACD -3.23) show oversold conditions with weak momentum. While dividend yield (2.02%) and recent PAT growth (372 Cr vs 259 Cr) provide some support, efficiency metrics (ROCE 8.36%, ROE 6.86%) remain low. Valuation (P/E 35.8 vs industry 26.7) is slightly expensive, and quarterly profit variation (-21.3%) adds caution.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 70–72 ₹ (near 52-week low support).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 80–85 ₹ resistance or on breakdown below 70 ₹.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Dividend yield of 2.02%, attractive for investors
• 📊 PAT improved (372 Cr vs 259 Cr)
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.70, manageable leverage
• 📈 Slight increase in FII (+0.03%) and DII (+0.22%) holdings

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 RSI at 22.5, oversold but bearish
• 📊 MACD negative (-3.23), weak momentum
• 📉 P/E ratio (35.8) higher than industry average (26.7)
• 📊 Weak ROCE (8.36%) and ROE (6.86%)

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly profit variation negative (-21.3%)
• 📊 PEG ratio negative (-41.2), poor growth-adjusted valuation

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 PAT growth compared to previous quarter
• 📊 Institutional inflows (FII and DII) provide minor support

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 26.7, lower than SJVN’s valuation
• 📈 Power sector remains strategically important with government focus on renewable energy expansion

📌 Conclusion

SJVN is a weak swing trade candidate due to bearish technical signals, overvaluation, and weak efficiency metrics. Entry near 70–72 ₹ may offer limited upside, while exits should be targeted near 80–85 ₹. Traders should remain cautious and use strict stop-loss management given fragile fundamentals and negative profit variation.

I can also prepare a comparison of SJVN with another PSU power sector stock to highlight relative swing trade opportunities.