SJVN - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 2.5

📊 Chart Patterns: SJVN is trading below both its 50 DMA (80.7 ₹) and 200 DMA (91.8 ₹). Current price (72.9 ₹) is near its 52-week low (69.9 ₹), showing strong bearish momentum. The broader pattern indicates a breakdown from consolidation zones with lower highs and lower lows.

📈 Moving Averages: Price < 50 DMA and < 200 DMA → bearish alignment, confirming weakness in both short-term and long-term trends.

📉 RSI: 22.5 → deep oversold territory, suggesting potential technical rebound but overall weak momentum.

📉 MACD: -3.23 → bearish crossover, confirming downward momentum.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price hugging lower band, indicating oversold conditions but also risk of further downside.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (27,77,753) is slightly above 1-week average (24,91,848) → selling pressure with mild participation, showing distribution rather than accumulation.

📍 Support Levels: 70 ₹, 69.9 ₹ (52-week low), and 65 ₹.

📍 Resistance Levels: 80.7 ₹ (DMA 50), 91.8 ₹ (DMA 200), and 100 ₹.

🔎 Trend: The stock is reversing downward with strong bearish signals. A breakdown below 70 ₹ could trigger further decline, while a rebound above 80–92 ₹ may signal short-term recovery momentum.

Positive

• 📈 PAT improved sequentially from 259 Cr. to 372 Cr.
• 📊 EPS at 2.04 ₹ supports valuation strength.
• 💰 Dividend yield of 2.02% provides income support for investors.
• 📊 Marginal increase in FII (+0.03%) and DII (+0.22%) holdings shows institutional support.

Limitation

• ⚠️ Price trading near 52-week low (6.47% of range) → weak sentiment.
• ⚠️ RSI oversold and MACD negative, limiting upside potential.
• ⚠️ PEG ratio (–41.2) suggests poor earnings growth outlook.
• ⚠️ ROE (6.86%) and ROCE (8.36%) indicate weak capital efficiency.
• ⚠️ Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.70 indicates moderate leverage risk.

Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly profit variation (–21.3%) highlights earnings pressure.
• 📉 Technical indicators (MACD negative, RSI oversold) confirm bearish momentum.

Company Positive News

• 📈 Sequential PAT growth shows operational improvement.
• 📊 Dividend yield provides investor support.
• 📊 Institutional investors marginally increasing stake.

Industry

• ⚡ Power sector PE at 26.7, lower than SJVN’s PE (35.8), suggesting valuation premium.
• 📊 Industry supported by government-led infrastructure and renewable energy initiatives.

Conclusion

🔎 SJVN is showing strong bearish reversal signals with price below key moving averages, RSI oversold, and MACD negative. Optimal entry zone lies near 70–73 ₹ only for high-risk traders looking for technical rebound. Exit/resistance zone is 80–92 ₹. Long-term investors should remain cautious due to weak fundamentals and valuation premium, while short-term traders may attempt rebound trades only if price sustains above 80 ₹ with volume support.