RADICO - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

📊 Based on the given parameters, RADICO shows limited potential for swing trading. The stock is trading at a very high P/E (92.1 vs industry 36.2), indicating overvaluation. Technical indicators (RSI 47.4, MACD -11.7) suggest neutral-to-bearish momentum. While profitability metrics (ROCE 16.2%, ROE 13.6%) are decent and quarterly profit variation is strong (69.1%), weak dividend yield and expensive valuation limit upside. Short-term opportunities may exist near support levels.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 3,100–3,150 ₹ (near DMA 50 support).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 3,350–3,400 ₹ resistance or on breakdown below 3,100 ₹.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong quarterly profit variation (69.1%)
• 📊 ROCE (16.2%) and ROE (13.6%) show healthy efficiency
• 📉 Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.21), stable financials
• 📊 EPS at 34.3 ₹, supporting earnings base

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Very high P/E ratio (92.1 vs industry 36.2)
• 📊 Weak dividend yield (0.13%)
• 📉 PEG ratio at 8.34, expensive growth valuation
• 📊 MACD negative (-11.7), weak momentum

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Decline in DII holdings (-0.48%)
• 📊 Neutral PAT growth (139 Cr vs 139 Cr), no improvement

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 FII holdings increased (+0.23%)
• 📊 Strong EPS and profitability metrics

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 36.2, much lower than RADICO’s valuation
• 📈 Alcohol and beverages sector benefiting from premiumization and demand growth

📌 Conclusion

RADICO is a moderately risky swing trade candidate due to overvaluation and weak technical signals. Entry near 3,100–3,150 ₹ offers limited upside, while exits should be targeted near 3,350–3,400 ₹. Traders should remain cautious, focusing on strict stop-loss management given the high P/E and neutral earnings growth.

I can also prepare a side-by-side swing trade comparison of RADICO with another liquor sector peer to highlight relative opportunities.