OIL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.7

📊 Swing Trade Analysis: OIL (Oil India Ltd.)

OIL offers a moderately attractive swing trade setup. While the fundamentals are solid and valuation is reasonable, technical indicators suggest weak momentum. This setup suits value-oriented traders who are comfortable entering during consolidation phases and waiting for a technical reversal.

✅ Strengths

Valuation & Profitability

P/E (11.9) vs Industry PE (11.6): Fairly valued.

PEG Ratio (0.74): Indicates decent growth at a reasonable price.

EPS (₹33.6) and Book Value (₹279): Strong earnings and asset base.

ROCE (15.2%) and ROE (13.5%): Healthy capital efficiency.

Dividend Yield (2.88%): Attractive for short-term holders.

Debt-to-Equity (0.28): Moderate and manageable.

Volume (49.4L) significantly above 1-week average — strong trader interest.

⚠️ Weaknesses

Technical Indicators

MACD (-5.57): Bearish crossover — signals fading momentum.

RSI (45.1): Weak, nearing oversold territory.

Price below 50 DMA (₹413) and 200 DMA (₹428): Indicates short-term downtrend.

Earnings Decline

PAT Qtr (₹813 Cr.) vs Prev Qtr (₹1,591 Cr.): Significant drop.

Qtr Profit Var (-44.5%): Sharp year-over-year contraction.

FII Holding Decline (-0.35%): Mild foreign investor pullback.

52w Index (27.2%): Trading in lower range — sentiment remains weak.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Entry Zone: ₹385–₹390

A dip near this level offers a better risk-reward setup. Look for MACD reversal or RSI climbing above 50 for confirmation.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Target Exit Price: ₹425–₹440

Near 200 DMA and intermediate resistance.

Stop Loss: ₹375

Just below recent support and psychological level.

Time Horizon: 1–2 weeks, depending on technical recovery and volume behavior.

This setup suits swing traders who prioritize value and dividends, and can manage short-term volatility. Let me know if you'd like help tracking this trade or scanning stronger breakout setups.

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