OIL - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📉 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Current Price (₹441) is hovering around both 50 DMA (₹439) and 200 DMA (₹436) — suggests consolidation, no clear trend.

RSI (48.5) — neutral, with potential to rise if momentum builds.

MACD (−0.84) — slightly negative, indicating weak momentum.

Volume: Slightly below 1-week average — reflects low conviction in current price movement.

📊 Fundamental Overview

Valuation

P/E (10.9) vs Industry P/E (11.6) — fairly valued.

PEG Ratio (1.87) — high, suggests expensive growth relative to earnings.

EPS (₹40.3) — strong earnings base.

Book Value (₹306) — price trades at ~1.44× book value, reasonable.

Profitability

ROCE (13.0%) and ROE (13.4%) — moderate efficiency.

Dividend Yield (2.38%) — decent for swing traders seeking income.

Quarterly Performance

PAT Qtr: ₹1,310 Cr vs Prev Qtr: ₹1,339 Cr — slight decline (−38.6% YoY), weak earnings momentum.

Debt-to-Equity (0.62) — moderate leverage, acceptable for energy sector.

FII/DII Holding

FII down (−0.35%), DII up (+0.10%) — mixed institutional sentiment.

⚠️ Swing Trade Strategy

Neutral setup — not strongly bullish or bearish, but may offer short-term opportunity if momentum improves.

Optimal Entry Price: ₹435–₹440 (near DMA support zone)

Target Exit Price: ₹465–₹475 (next resistance zone)

Stop Loss: ₹425 (below recent support and DMA buffer)

🧭 If You Already Hold the Stock

Hold with a target of ₹465–₹475.

Exit if price breaks below ₹425 or RSI dips below 45 with MACD turning more negative.

OIL offers a stable setup with fair valuation and decent yield, but lacks strong momentum. Suitable for cautious swing traders with disciplined entry and exit levels.

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