OIL - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 3.0

📊 Chart Patterns: OIL is trading at 405 ₹, below both its 50 DMA (415 ₹) and 200 DMA (423 ₹). The chart shows weakness after a correction from the 52-week high (495 ₹), with support visible near 390–400 ₹.

📈 Moving Averages: Price is below short- and long-term averages, confirming bearish sentiment. Sustaining above 415–423 ₹ is crucial for recovery.

📉 RSI: At 35.9, RSI is weak and close to oversold territory, suggesting limited downside but no strong rebound yet.

📉 MACD: Negative (-6.41), showing bearish crossover and continuation of weakness.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, indicating selling pressure and possible volatility squeeze.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (24.9 lakh) is higher than average weekly volume (11.6 lakh), showing increased activity but largely on the selling side.

📍 Momentum Signals: Short-term momentum is bearish. RSI suggests possible consolidation near support but no strong reversal yet.

🎯 Entry Zone: 390–405 ₹ (near support). Suitable only for speculative rebound trades with strict risk management.

🎯 Exit Zone: 415–430 ₹ (near 50 DMA and 200 DMA resistance). Strong resistance at 450–495 ₹.

🔎 Trend Status: The stock is reversing downward and currently in a bearish phase with weak consolidation attempts.

Positive

• Dividend yield of 2.84% provides steady income.
• Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.28) ensures financial stability.
• EPS of 28.7 ₹ supports valuation strength.
• P/E of 14.1 is attractive compared to industry average (18.6).
• Sequential PAT growth (1,044 Cr. vs 813 Cr.) shows improvement.
• DII holdings increased (+0.80%).

Limitation

• RSI near oversold levels indicates weak momentum.
• MACD negative, showing short-term weakness.
• Price trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA.
• Quarterly profit variation (-43.1%) shows declining year-on-year performance.
• FII holdings declined (-0.60%).

Company Negative News

• Quarterly profit variation shows weakness (-43.1%).
• FII holdings decreased (-0.60%).
• Stock corrected from 495 ₹ to 405 ₹.

Company Positive News

• Sequential PAT growth (1,044 Cr. vs 813 Cr.).
• DII holdings increased (+0.80%).
• Dividend yield of 2.84% supports investor confidence.

Industry

• Industry PE is 18.6, higher than OIL’s 14.1, suggesting undervaluation.
• Energy sector remains cyclical, influenced by global crude prices and government policies.

Conclusion

⚠️ OIL is in a bearish trend, trading below key moving averages with weak technical momentum. Fundamentals show dividend yield and undervaluation relative to peers, but declining year-on-year profits and weak RSI limit upside. Traders may consider speculative entries near 390–405 ₹ with exits around 415–430 ₹. Long-term investors should wait for sustained profitability and a breakout above 423 ₹ before committing further.