NCC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.7

📊 NCC currently shows weak technical momentum for swing trading. The RSI at 15.6 indicates oversold conditions, but the negative MACD (-8.81) and price trading below both 50 DMA (182 ₹) and 200 DMA (211 ₹) reflect bearish sentiment. Fundamentals such as low debt-to-equity (0.28), strong ROCE (20.1%), and undervaluation compared to industry P/E (13.7 vs 18.8) are positives, but short-term profit decline and weak momentum limit swing trade potential.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 152–155 ₹ (near recent low and oversold zone).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 182–190 ₹ (50 DMA resistance) unless momentum improves.

✅ Positive

• 📈 ROCE of 20.1% and ROE of 10.7% show efficient capital use
• 💰 Valuation attractive with P/E of 13.7 vs industry P/E of 18.8
• 📉 Low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28 ensures financial stability
• 📊 PEG ratio of 0.51 indicates undervaluation relative to growth

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Current price (156 ₹) is below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA
• 📉 RSI at 15.6 shows oversold but also weak momentum
• 📉 MACD at -8.81 signals bearish trend
• 📉 Decline in DII holding (-0.85%) weakens domestic investor confidence

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly PAT dropped from 190 Cr. to 101 Cr. (down 37.1%)
• 📉 EPS stagnant at 11 ₹ despite revenue base

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 FII holding increased by 0.17%, showing foreign investor interest
• 💵 Dividend yield of 1.45% provides steady income

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry P/E at 18.8, higher than NCC’s 13.7, showing relative undervaluation
• 📈 Infrastructure sector expected to benefit from government spending initiatives

📝 Conclusion

⚖️ NCC is fundamentally strong but technically weak in the short term. Swing traders should be cautious: entry near 152–155 ₹ may offer a rebound opportunity, but exit should be considered around 182–190 ₹ unless volumes and momentum improve. Long-term investors may find value, but short-term traders face risk due to declining profits and bearish technical indicators.

Would you like me to also prepare a side-by-side HTML comparison with another infrastructure stock so you can evaluate relative swing trade strength?