MRPL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.0

📊 MRPL shows a mix of short-term weakness and recent profit recovery, making it a cautious swing trade candidate. The stock is trading below its 50 DMA (155 ₹) but close to its 200 DMA (147 ₹), reflecting indecision. RSI at 32.1 indicates oversold conditions, which may trigger a rebound, but MACD remains negative (-4.12), suggesting continued weakness. Optimal entry would be near 145–150 ₹ if support holds. If already holding, exit should be considered near 170–175 ₹, close to resistance levels.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong quarterly PAT recovery (639 Cr. vs. -272 Cr. previous quarter), showing turnaround momentum.
• 💰 EPS of 5.90 ₹ indicates profitability after prior losses.
• 📊 Healthy trading volumes provide liquidity for swing trades.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 ROCE (4.36%) and ROE (0.40%) are very weak, reflecting poor efficiency.
• 📊 PEG ratio of -0.34 suggests unattractive valuation relative to growth.
• 📉 Current price below 50 DMA shows short-term bearishness.
• 📊 Dividend yield at 0.00% offers no income support.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Weak return ratios highlight inefficiency in capital utilization.
• 📉 Slight decline in FII holdings (-0.08%) shows reduced foreign investor confidence.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Strong profit recovery in the latest quarter (+194% variation) boosts sentiment.
• 📊 Increase in DII holdings (+0.07%) shows some domestic institutional support.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 11.3 vs. MRPL’s PE of 25.1 indicates overvaluation compared to peers.
• ⛽ Oil refining sector is cyclical, heavily influenced by crude prices and refining margins.

📌 Conclusion

Overall, MRPL is a weak-to-moderate swing trade candidate with rebound potential but poor fundamentals. Entry around 145–150 ₹ is optimal only if support holds, while exit should be considered near 170–175 ₹. Traders should closely monitor crude oil trends and margin performance before committing to positions.

I can also prepare a side-by-side swing trade comparison with HPCL and BPCL to highlight MRPL’s relative positioning in the refining sector. Would you like me to set that up?