MRPL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.8

📉 Optimal Entry Price: ₹160–₹165 (wait for RSI cooldown)

📈 Exit Strategy (if holding): ₹178–₹180 (near 52-week high and resistance)

🔷 Positive

• 📊 Quarterly turnaround: PAT jumped from -₹272 Cr. to ₹639 Cr., showing strong recovery.
• 📈 MACD at 8.60: Indicates bullish momentum.
• 📈 Trading well above DMA 50 and 200: Strong technical breakout.
• 📊 Volume surge: Current volume significantly exceeds 1-week average, confirming interest.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 RSI at 80.5: Deep in overbought territory, signaling potential short-term pullback.
• 📉 ROCE (4.36%) and ROE (0.40%): Weak capital efficiency despite profit spike.
• 📉 PEG ratio of -0.40: Indicates valuation concerns and inconsistent growth.
• 📉 Dividend yield is 0.00%: No income return for investors.
• 📉 FII holding declined: Slight drop in foreign investor sentiment.

📉 Company Negative News

• 📰 MRPL’s profitability remains volatile due to fluctuating refining margins and global crude price swings.
• 📉 Analysts caution that recent gains may be speculative and not backed by sustainable fundamentals.

📈 Company Positive News

• 📊 MRPL posted a net profit of ₹1,053 Cr. in Q2 FY26, reversing a loss of ₹1,041 Cr. YoY.
• 📈 Gross refining margin improved to $13.65/bbl, supporting earnings recovery.

🛢️ Industry

• 🏭 Operates in the oil refining sector, which is cyclical and sensitive to global energy trends.
• 📈 Industry P/E of 20.3 suggests MRPL is trading at a premium, possibly due to short-term earnings momentum.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ MRPL is a speculative swing trade candidate with strong technical momentum but weak underlying fundamentals.
• 📌 Entry near ₹160–₹165 is safer after RSI cools down from overbought levels.
• 🚪 If already holding, consider exiting near ₹178–₹180, aligning with resistance and recent highs.

Sources

Business Today – MRPL Q2 results

Moneycontrol – Refining margin update

I can also chart MRPL’s RSI and MACD trends to help you time your entry more precisely.