MRPL - IntraDay Trade Analysis with Live Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:03 am

IntraDay Trade Rating: 2.8

📊 Analysis: MRPL is trading at ₹148, below DMA 50 (₹155) but slightly above DMA 200 (₹147), showing short-term weakness with marginal long-term support. RSI at 32.1 indicates oversold conditions, while MACD negative (-4.12) confirms bearish momentum. Volume (25.1L) is below 1-week average (40.9L), reflecting reduced intraday participation. Fundamentals are weak with ROCE 4.36% and ROE 0.40%, though quarterly PAT rebounded strongly (₹639 Cr. vs -₹272 Cr. previously). Intraday trades may be possible for speculative rebound, but risk remains high.

💡 Optimal Buy Price: ₹146–₹149 (near support zone).

🎯 Profit-Taking Levels: ₹152 (first target), ₹155 (second target — near DMA 50).

🛡️ Stop-Loss: ₹144 (below recent support).

⏱️ If Already Holding: Exit near ₹152–₹155 if rebound occurs. Cut position immediately if price falls below ₹144 with rising volume, as weakness may extend further.

Positive

• 📈 Quarterly PAT turnaround from -₹272 Cr. to ₹639 Cr.
• 💹 EPS ₹5.90 showing recovery
• 📊 Price above DMA 200, offering long-term support
• 📉 RSI oversold (32.1) may trigger short-term bounce

Limitation

• 📉 ROCE 4.36% and ROE 0.40% show poor efficiency
• 📊 MACD negative (-4.12) confirms weak momentum
• 📉 Volume below average, limiting intraday volatility
• 📊 P/E 25.1 higher than industry average (11.3)

Company Negative News

• ⚠️ Weak return ratios (ROCE & ROE)
• ⚠️ FII holding decreased (-0.08%), showing reduced foreign confidence

Company Positive News

• ✅ DII holding increased (+0.07%), showing domestic support
• ✅ Strong quarterly profit recovery boosts sentiment

Industry

• 🏭 Industry PE at 11.3, MRPL at 25.1 — relatively overvalued
• 📊 Oil refining sector remains cyclical, sensitive to crude price trends

Conclusion

🔎 MRPL is a weak intraday candidate with poor fundamentals and bearish technicals, though oversold RSI and profit recovery may trigger speculative rebound. Buy zone is ₹146–₹149 with targets at ₹152 and ₹155. Maintain strict stop-loss at ₹144. If already holding, exit near targets or cut losses below support with volume confirmation.

Would you like me to extend this into a peer benchmarking overlay with other refiners like IOC, BPCL, HPCL or a sector rotation basket scan to validate intraday opportunities?