IRFC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.6

📊 IRFC shows moderate potential for swing trading. The stock is currently priced at ₹114, below both its 50 DMA (₹119) and 200 DMA (₹128), indicating short-term weakness. RSI at 30.2 suggests oversold conditions, while MACD (-2.45) reflects bearish momentum. Fundamentals show consistent profit growth and stable institutional inflows, but high leverage and stretched PEG ratio limit upside. Optimal entry would be near ₹110–112, close to support. If already holding, consider exiting around ₹125–130, near resistance levels.

✅ Positive

• Consistent quarterly profit growth (₹1,777 Cr vs ₹1,746 Cr)
• Positive institutional inflows (FII +0.04%, DII +0.03%)
• Healthy EPS (₹5.23)
• Attractive dividend yield of 1.42%
• Strong trading volume above weekly average

⚠️ Limitation

• Weak ROCE (5.83%) and moderate ROE (12.8%)
• High debt-to-equity ratio (7.25)
• PEG ratio (9.87) suggests valuation is stretched relative to growth
• Stock trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA

📉 Company Negative News

• Short-term technical weakness with RSI oversold and MACD negative
• High leverage compared to peers

📈 Company Positive News

• Improved quarterly profits with 10.2% growth
• Stable operations with consistent earnings
• Positive institutional investor confidence

🏭 Industry

• Industry PE (21.2) is close to IRFC’s PE (21.8), showing fair valuation
• Railway finance sector remains stable but sensitive to interest rate and policy changes

📝 Conclusion

IRFC presents a cautious swing trade opportunity. Entry near ₹110–112 is optimal, while exit should be considered around ₹125–130. Strong profit growth and institutional inflows support medium-term prospects, but high leverage and weak technicals warrant careful risk management.

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