IRFC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 2.9
| Stock Code | IRFC | Market Cap | 1,24,203 Cr. | Current Price | 95.0 ₹ | High / Low | 149 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 17.7 | Book Value | 43.3 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 2.21 % | ROCE | 5.83 % |
| ROE | 12.8 % | Face Value | 10.0 ₹ | DMA 50 | 108 ₹ | DMA 200 | 120 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 0.01 % | Chg in DII Hold | 0.06 % | PAT Qtr | 1,802 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 1,777 Cr. |
| RSI | 30.1 | MACD | -4.35 | Volume | 1,23,33,910 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 1,28,96,176 |
| Low price | 94.3 ₹ | High price | 149 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 8.02 | Debt to equity | 2.73 |
| 52w Index | 1.35 % | Qtr Profit Var | 10.5 % | EPS | 5.36 ₹ | Industry PE | 17.6 |
📊 IRFC shows weak technical momentum for swing trading. The RSI at 30.1 indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD (-4.35) confirms bearish sentiment. The price is trading below both the 50 DMA (108 ₹) and 200 DMA (120 ₹), reflecting a downtrend. Fundamentally, the company has decent ROE (12.8%) and consistent profitability (PAT up from 1,777 Cr. to 1,802 Cr.), but weak ROCE (5.83%) and high debt-to-equity (2.73) raise caution. Valuation is fair with a P/E of 17.7, in line with industry average (17.6), though the PEG ratio (8.02) suggests growth is priced expensively. Institutional flows are flat, with minor FII (+0.01%) and DII (+0.06%) inflows.
💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 94–96 ₹, near current levels, with confirmation of reversal signals.
🚪 Exit Strategy (if already holding): Consider exiting near 105–110 ₹ if a rebound occurs, or cut losses if the price falls below 92 ₹ with strong volume.
Positive
- Consistent profitability with quarterly PAT growth (10.5%).
- ROE at 12.8% shows decent shareholder returns.
- Dividend yield of 2.21% provides income support.
- Valuation in line with industry average (P/E 17.7 vs 17.6).
Limitation
- Price trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA confirms bearish trend.
- High debt-to-equity ratio (2.73) raises financial risk.
- Weak ROCE (5.83%) compared to peers.
- PEG ratio of 8.02 indicates growth is priced expensively.
Company Negative News
- Weak technical indicators (RSI, MACD) suggest continued selling pressure.
- High leverage could limit future flexibility.
Company Positive News
- Quarterly profit growth from 1,777 Cr. to 1,802 Cr.
- Dividend yield of 2.21% supports investor returns.
- Minor FII and DII inflows show stable institutional interest.
Industry
- Industry P/E at 17.6 is aligned with IRFC’s 17.7, suggesting fair valuation.
- Railway finance sector remains stable but heavily dependent on government policies and infrastructure spending.
Conclusion
⚠️ IRFC is currently not an ideal candidate for swing trading due to weak technicals, high debt, and expensive growth valuation. While profitability and dividend yield are positives, the bearish trend limits short-term upside. Traders should only enter near 94–96 ₹ with clear reversal signals. If already holding, exit on rebounds near 105–110 ₹ and protect downside below 92 ₹.