IRFC - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.3

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Current Price (₹127) is below both the 50-DMA (₹135) and 200-DMA (₹138) — indicates a bearish short-term trend.

RSI (32.4): Near oversold territory — potential for a technical bounce, but not yet confirmed.

MACD (-2.26): Negative — momentum is weak and declining.

Volume: Slightly below average — suggests fading interest from traders.

📈 Fundamental Snapshot

ROCE (5.83%) & ROE (12.8%): Moderate — not ideal for short-term swing setups.

EPS (₹5.10) vs Stock P/E (24.8): Fairly valued relative to Industry PE (24.8).

PEG Ratio (11.2): Extremely high — valuation is stretched compared to growth.

Quarterly PAT Growth (10.7%): Mild earnings improvement.

FII Holding Change (-0.05%): Slight decline — neutral to cautious stance.

DII Holding Change (+0.11%): Minimal increase — not a strong signal.

Debt to Equity (7.44): Very high — typical for financing companies but adds risk.

Dividend Yield (1.26%): Decent — provides some cushion for downside.

⚖️ Swing Trade Viability

Strengths

RSI near reversal zone — potential for bounce.

Decent dividend yield.

Stable earnings and fair valuation.

Concerns

Weak technical indicators (MACD, below key DMAs).

High PEG ratio — poor valuation relative to growth.

Very high leverage — limits flexibility.

Low institutional movement — no strong conviction.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Entry Zone: ₹120–₹125 — near recent support and psychological level. Look for RSI to cross 40 and MACD to flatten before entering.

🚪 Exit Strategy

If Holding: Consider exiting near ₹135–₹140 — around 50-DMA and short-term resistance.

Stop Loss: ₹118 — breach below this level would invalidate the swing setup.

IRFC is showing signs of a potential technical rebound, but the setup lacks strong momentum and institutional conviction. If you're already holding, you're near support — just keep an eye on volume and RSI for confirmation. Want to explore other PSU finance plays with better swing setups? I’ve got a few worth scanning.

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