IRFC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to List📊 Swing Trade Rating: 3.8
| Stock Code | IRFC | Market Cap | 1,36,540 Cr. | Current Price | 104 ₹ | High / Low | 149 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 19.5 | Book Value | 43.3 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 2.01 % | ROCE | 5.83 % |
| ROE | 12.8 % | Face Value | 10.0 ₹ | DMA 50 | 103 ₹ | DMA 200 | 115 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 0.18 % | Chg in DII Hold | 1.35 % | PAT Qtr | 1,802 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 1,777 Cr. |
| RSI | 56.5 | MACD | 1.62 | Volume | 1,16,67,908 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 1,14,50,916 |
| Low price | 87.0 ₹ | High price | 149 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 8.82 | Debt to equity | 2.73 |
| 52w Index | 28.1 % | Qtr Profit Var | 10.5 % | EPS | 5.36 ₹ | Industry PE | 19.8 |
Analysis: IRFC is trading at ₹104, close to its 50 DMA (₹103) but below the 200 DMA (₹115), showing consolidation with mild bearish bias. RSI at 56.5 indicates neutral momentum, while MACD at 1.62 suggests a slight positive crossover. Valuation is fair with a P/E of 19.5 compared to industry average of 19.8, and EPS of ₹5.36 is reasonable. ROE at 12.8% is decent, though ROCE at 5.83% is weak. Debt-to-equity ratio at 2.73 is high, reflecting leverage risk. PAT improved (₹1,802 Cr vs ₹1,777 Cr), with quarterly profit variation (+10.5%) supporting earnings stability. Dividend yield at 2.01% adds investor appeal. Swing trade potential is moderate, with upside capped by resistance near 200 DMA.
Optimal Entry Price: ₹100–102, near short-term support.
Exit Strategy (if holding): Consider exiting around ₹110–112, aligning with resistance before 200 DMA.
✅ Positive
- Valuation in line with industry average (P/E 19.5 vs 19.8).
- PAT growth (+10.5%) supports earnings momentum.
- DII holdings increased significantly (+1.35%).
⚠️ Limitation
- High debt-to-equity ratio (2.73).
- Weak ROCE at 5.83% compared to peers.
- Trading below 200 DMA (₹115), showing overhead resistance.
📉 Company Negative News
- High leverage limits financial flexibility.
- Efficiency metrics (ROCE) remain weak.
📈 Company Positive News
- PAT improved (₹1,802 Cr vs ₹1,777 Cr).
- FII holdings increased slightly (+0.18%).
- DII holdings increased strongly (+1.35%).
🏭 Industry
- Industry P/E at 19.8, showing IRFC trades fairly valued.
- Railway finance sector benefits from government-backed demand but remains sensitive to leverage risks.
🔎 Conclusion
IRFC offers moderate swing trade potential with stable earnings and fair valuation. Entry near ₹100–102 may be considered, with exit around ₹110–112. While dividend yield and institutional support are positives, caution is advised due to high leverage and weak efficiency metrics.