FACT - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.9

📈 Analysis: FACT shows weak technical momentum and concerning valuation metrics, making it a risky swing trade candidate. The current price of ₹897 is below both the 50 DMA (₹922) and 200 DMA (₹903), indicating a short-term downtrend. RSI at 45 and negative MACD (-8.41) confirm bearish sentiment. Despite a strong quarterly profit jump (86.4%), the stock trades at an extremely high P/E of 640 and a negative PEG ratio (-10.2), suggesting severe overvaluation. The high debt-to-equity ratio (2.79) and sharp drop in DII holdings (-8.56%) further weaken the setup.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price: ₹870–₹880 (if RSI stabilizes and volume improves)

🚪 Exit Strategy (if holding): Consider exiting near ₹940–₹960 (next resistance zone) or if RSI crosses 60 with MACD turning positive.

✅ Positive

• 📊 Strong quarterly PAT growth (86.4%) — earnings momentum
• 📉 Low FII churn (+0.01%) — stable foreign interest
• 📈 Trading above 52-week low — potential support zone

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Price below both 50 and 200 DMA — bearish trend
• 📉 RSI and MACD indicate weak momentum
• 📉 Extremely high P/E (640) and negative PEG — unsustainable valuation
• 📉 High debt-to-equity ratio (2.79) — financial risk
• 📉 Sharp drop in DII holding (-8.56%) — institutional caution

📰 Company Negative News

• No major public negative news, but valuation and debt levels raise red flags

🌟 Company Positive News

• Quarterly profit surge suggests operational improvement or one-time gains

🏭 Industry

• Industry P/E is 22.7 — FACT trades at a massive premium
• Fertilizer and chemicals sector remains cyclical and policy-sensitive

🧾 Conclusion

FACT is a high-risk swing trade candidate with weak technicals and inflated valuation. Entry should be cautious and only considered if momentum improves. Exit near resistance or on RSI/MACD confirmation is advised.

I can also compare FACT’s valuation and technicals with peers like Chambal Fertilisers or GNFC to refine your swing strategy.