FACT - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:54 pm

Technical Rating: 3.0

📊 Chart Patterns & Trend: FACT is trading below both its 50 DMA (878 ₹) and 200 DMA (893 ₹), showing weakness. Support lies around 850–860 ₹, while resistance is seen near 880–890 ₹. The stock is consolidating with a bearish bias.

📈 Moving Averages: Current price (864 ₹) is below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA, indicating short-term weakness and lack of momentum.

📉 RSI: At 47.4, RSI suggests neutral momentum, neither strongly oversold nor overbought.

📉 MACD: Negative (-9.93) reflects bearish momentum, signaling caution until a crossover occurs.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, implying limited downside but weak buying interest.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (1.7 lakh) is far below the 1-week average (16.1 lakh), showing weak participation and lack of conviction.

🎯 Entry Zone: 850–860 ₹ (near support and neutral RSI)

🎯 Exit Zone: 880–890 ₹ (near resistance and upper consolidation band)

Positive

• Quarterly PAT surged from 4.28 Cr. to 20.9 Cr., showing strong earnings growth.
• EPS at 1.61 ₹ reflects improved profitability compared to previous quarters.
• FII holdings increased slightly (+0.01%), showing marginal foreign investor confidence.

Limitation

• Extremely high P/E (616) compared to industry average (20.3) suggests severe overvaluation.
• Low ROCE (8.65%) and ROE (1.61%) highlight weak capital efficiency.
• PEG ratio (-9.78) indicates poor alignment between growth and valuation.
• High debt-to-equity ratio (2.79) raises leverage concerns.

Company Negative News

• DII holdings decreased sharply by -8.56%, showing reduced domestic institutional confidence.
• Weak trading volume compared to average indicates lack of strong momentum.

Company Positive News

• Quarterly profit variation at 86.4% highlights strong earnings momentum.
• 52-week performance index at 54.6% shows resilience compared to broader market.

Industry

• Industry P/E at 20.3 indicates sector is moderately valued compared to FACT’s extreme valuation.
• Chemical and fertilizer sector demand expected to remain stable with government support for agriculture.

Conclusion

⚖️ FACT is in a consolidation phase with bearish bias. Entry near 850–860 ₹ offers limited risk-reward, while exits around 880–890 ₹ are optimal. Watch for volume recovery and MACD crossover to confirm reversal signals. High valuation and weak fundamentals remain key concerns despite recent profit growth.