BAJAJHFL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:00 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.1

📊 BAJAJHFL shows weak-to-moderate potential for swing trading. The stock is trading below both its 50 DMA (104 ₹) and 200 DMA (115 ₹), indicating bearish technicals. RSI at 26.0 suggests oversold conditions, but MACD (-3.23) confirms negative momentum. The optimal entry price would be around 93–95 ₹ only if the stock stabilizes and shows reversal signs. If already holding, consider exiting near 104–108 ₹ (close to 50 DMA resistance) or cut losses if the price falls below 92 ₹.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Quarterly profit growth (PAT up from 583 Cr. to 643 Cr., +17.8%).
• 💼 EPS of 2.83 ₹ shows improving earnings visibility.
• 📊 PEG ratio of 0.75 suggests fair valuation relative to growth.
• 📈 Strong trading volume (44 lakh vs avg 59 lakh), showing active participation.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 High valuation (P/E 33.5 vs Industry PE 18.0).
• 📉 Weak return ratios (ROCE 9.55%, ROE 13.5%).
• 📉 High debt-to-equity ratio (4.44), adding financial risk.
• 📉 Dividend yield at 0.00% offers no income support.
• 📉 Stock underperforming with 52w Index at only 7.13%.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 No major negative news reported, but weak technicals and high leverage weigh on sentiment.
• 📉 Decline in both FII (-0.13%) and DII (-0.05%) holdings.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Strong quarterly profit growth supports earnings momentum.
• 💼 Stable financial structure despite high leverage.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 18.0, much lower than BAJAJHFL’s P/E, suggesting overvaluation.
• 🏦 NBFC sector benefits from rising credit demand but faces regulatory and interest rate risks.

📌 Conclusion

BAJAJHFL is a weak candidate for swing trading at present due to stretched valuations, high leverage, and bearish technicals. Entry should be considered only if the stock stabilizes near 93–95 ₹ with reversal signals. Exit strategy: book profits near 104–108 ₹ or cut losses if the price falls below 92 ₹. Traders should remain cautious and adopt strict stop-loss discipline.

I can also prepare a comparative swing trade outlook for BAJAJHFL vs BAJFINANCE and BAJAJFINSV to highlight relative strengths and weaknesses.