BAJAJHFL - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Investment Rating: 3.5

📊 Fundamental Analysis

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd (BAJAJHFL) shows promise in the housing finance sector but has mixed signals for long-term investment

ROE (13.5%) & ROCE (9.55%): Moderate returns, below ideal benchmarks for long-term compounding.

Debt-to-Equity (4.11): Highly leveraged, typical for NBFCs, but adds financial risk.

PEG Ratio (0.92): Attractive valuation relative to growth, suggesting potential upside.

EPS (₹2.72): Low, especially given the high P/E (41.5), indicating stretched valuation.

Dividend Yield (0.00%): No income generation for investors.

📈 Technical & Valuation Insights

Current Price: ₹113

52-Week Range: ₹103 – ₹188

DMA 50 / DMA 200: ₹120 / ₹127 — trading below both, indicating bearish trend.

RSI (28.0): Oversold zone, potential for technical bounce.

MACD (-1.96): Negative, confirming short-term weakness.

Volume: Below average, showing reduced interest.

🟢 Ideal Entry Price Zone

Given the oversold RSI and long-term potential

₹105 – ₹115: Accumulation zone for long-term investors.

₹103: Strong support near 52-week low — ideal for staggered entry.

Avoid chasing the stock above ₹125 unless fundamentals improve.

📈 Long-Term Outlook

Price Targets

2025: ₹168–189

2026: ₹253

2030: ₹410–550

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These targets suggest decent upside, but not exponential growth unless ROE/ROCE improve.

🛑 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

If you're already invested

Holding Period: 3–5 years, with periodic review of ROE and debt levels.

Exit Triggers

Price exceeds ₹180 without EPS growth.

ROE stagnates below 12% for 2+ quarters.

Debt-to-equity rises above 5.0 — consider trimming.

Trailing Stop-Loss: ₹105 to protect downside.

⚖️ Final Verdict

Bajaj Housing Finance is a moderate-risk, moderate-reward play in the housing finance space. While the PEG ratio is attractive, high debt and low ROE temper enthusiasm. Ideal for tactical accumulation near ₹105–₹115 with a 3–5 year horizon. If holding, monitor quarterly earnings and ROE trends closely.

Would you like a comparison with other NBFCs like LIC Housing Finance or PNB Housing to see how BAJAJHFL stacks up?

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bing.com

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shareprice-target.com

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